Voon Derby, Fogarty James
Agricultural and Resource Economics, University of Western Australia, Perth, Australia.
Drug Alcohol Rev. 2022 Mar;41(3):633-640. doi: 10.1111/dar.13393. Epub 2021 Oct 26.
There is a substantial literature on the price elasticity of demand for alcoholic beverages, but the literature on the tax elasticity and the way tax rates impact the evolution of alcohol consumption through time is more limited.
A two-level Bayesian hierarchical model is used to estimate tax and income elasticity values. The estimates from five different forecast methods are then averaged, and combined with the tax elasticity estimate, to investigate consumption for different scenarios. The sample consists of 30 high-income and upper-middle-income countries.
The alcohol tax elasticity estimate is approximately -0.4 and the alcohol income elasticity estimate approximately 0.2. If alcohol taxes evolve the way they have in the past, there is little evidence to suggest that per capita alcohol consumption will be higher in 2027, relative to 2017; but if alcohol taxes remain constant over the next decade, it is likely that per capita alcohol consumption will be notably higher in 2027, relative to 2017, for the sample of countries considered.
There is a natural tendency for alcohol consumption to increase with income. A working rule of thumb that can be used by policy makers to mitigate this effect is to increase alcohol tax rates at approximately half the long-run gross national income growth rate. For rich countries, this implies annual increases of approximately 1.0-1.5% in alcohol taxes.
关于酒精饮料需求的价格弹性已有大量文献，但关于税收弹性以及税率如何随时间影响酒精消费演变的文献则较为有限。
使用两级贝叶斯分层模型来估计税收和收入弹性值。然后将五种不同预测方法的估计值进行平均，并与税收弹性估计值相结合，以研究不同情景下的消费情况。样本包括30个高收入和中高收入国家。
酒精税收弹性估计值约为 -0.4，酒精收入弹性估计值约为0.2。如果酒精税按照过去的方式演变，几乎没有证据表明相对于2017年，2027年人均酒精消费量会更高；但如果在接下来的十年中酒精税保持不变，对于所考虑的国家样本而言，2027年人均酒精消费量相对于2017年可能会显著更高。
酒精消费有随收入增加的自然趋势。政策制定者可用于减轻这种影响的一个经验法则是，以大约长期国民总收入增长率一半的速度提高酒精税率。对于富裕国家而言，这意味着酒精税每年大约提高1.0 - 1.5%。
