[提高酒精税对德国酒精所致疾病负担的潜在影响：一项建模研究]
[Potential impact of increased alcohol taxes on the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany: a modelling study].
作者信息
Kilian Carolin, Rovira Pol, Neufeld Maria, Manthey Jakob, Rehm Jürgen
机构信息
Institut für Klinische Psychologie und Psychotherapie, Technische Universität Dresden, Chemnitzer Str. 46, 01187, Dresden, Deutschland.
Program on Substance Abuse, Public Health Agency of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spanien.
出版信息
Bundesgesundheitsblatt Gesundheitsforschung Gesundheitsschutz. 2022 Jun;65(6):668-676. doi: 10.1007/s00103-022-03528-9. Epub 2022 Apr 19.
BACKGROUND
In 2019, Germany was among the countries with the highest alcohol per capita consumption in the world, which contributes significantly to the burden of disease.
AIM
In this modelling study, we estimate how many alcohol-attributable diseases and deaths in Germany could have been avoided in 2019 if current alcohol excise taxes were increased by 20%, 50%, and 100%.
METHODS
The starting point for the modelling was the national beverage-specific alcohol taxes. Three scenarios were modelled under the assumption that the resulting tax increase would be fully transferred to the retail prices. Beverage-specific price elasticities were used. Based on the estimated resulting decline in annual per capita consumption and the disease-specific risk functions, we modelled the avoidable incidence and mortality for alcohol-attributable diseases for 2019. Alcohol-attributable diseases of the cardiovascular and digestive systems, alcohol dependence, epilepsy, and infectious diseases as well as injuries and accidents were considered.
RESULTS
Overall, doubling the beverage-specific alcohol taxes could have avoided up to 200,400 alcohol-attributable cases of disease and injury as well as 2800 deaths in Germany in 2019. This corresponds to just under 7% of the modelled new alcohol-attributable cases of disease and death in Germany.
DISCUSSION
Alcohol-attributable diseases and injuries are preventable and an increase in the alcohol taxes could substantially reduce the alcohol-attributable burden of disease in Germany.
背景
2019年，德国是世界上人均酒精消费量最高的国家之一，这对疾病负担有重大影响。
目的
在这项建模研究中，我们估计如果2019年现行酒精消费税分别提高20%、50%和100%，德国可避免多少与酒精相关的疾病和死亡。
方法
建模的起点是国家特定饮料酒精税。在假设税收增加将完全转嫁到零售价格的前提下，模拟了三种情景。使用了特定饮料的价格弹性。根据估计的人均年消费量下降以及特定疾病的风险函数，我们对2019年酒精相关疾病的可避免发病率和死亡率进行了建模。考虑了心血管和消化系统的酒精相关疾病、酒精依赖、癫痫、传染病以及伤害和事故。
结果
总体而言，将特定饮料酒精税提高一倍，在2019年德国可避免多达200,400例与酒精相关的疾病和伤害病例以及2800例死亡。这相当于德国模拟的新增酒精相关疾病和死亡病例的近7%。
讨论
与酒精相关的疾病和伤害是可以预防的，提高酒精税可以大幅减轻德国与酒精相关的疾病负担。
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