Elsler Laura G, Frawley Timothy Haight, Britten Gregory L, Crowder Larry B, DuBois Timothy C, Radosavljevic Sonja, Gilly William F, Crépin Anne-Sophie, Schlüter Maja
Stockholm Resilience Centre, Stockholm University, Kräftriket 2B, 11419 Stockholm, Sweden.
Hopkins Marine Station, Stanford University, 120 Ocean View Blvd, Pacific Grove, CA 93950 USA.
Reg Environ Change. 2021;21(2):35. doi: 10.1007/s10113-021-01747-5. Epub 2021 Mar 24.
Small-scale fisheries are critically important for livelihoods around the world, particularly in tropical regions. However, climate variability and anthropogenic climate change may seriously impact small-scale fisheries by altering the abundance and distribution of target species. Social relationships between fishery users, such as fish traders, can determine how each individual responds and is affected by changes in fisheries. These informal cooperative and competitive relationships provide access, support, and incentives for fishing and affect the distribution of benefits. Yet, individuals' actions and impacts on individuals are often the primary focus of the economic analyses informing small-scale fisheries' formal management. This focus dismisses relevant social relationships. We argue that this leads to a disconnect between reality and its model representation used in formal management, which may reduce formal fisheries management's efficiency and efficacy and potentially trigger adverse consequences. Here, we examine this argument by comparing the predictions of a simple bioeconomic fishery model with those of a social-ecological model that incorporates the dynamics of cooperative relationships between fish traders. We illustrate model outcomes using an empirical case study in the Mexican Humboldt squid fishery. We find that (1) the social-ecological model with relationship dynamics substantially improves accuracy in predicting observed fishery variables to the simple bioeconomic model. (2) Income inequality outcomes are associated with changes in cooperative trade relationships. When environmental temperature is included in the model as a driver of species production dynamics, we find that climate-driven temperature variability drives a decline in catch that, in turn, reduce fishers' income. We observe an offset of this loss in income by including cooperative relationships between fish traders (oligopoly) in the model. These relationships break down following species distribution changes and result in an increase in prices fishers receive. Finally, (3) our social-ecological model simulations show that the current fishery development program, which seeks to increase fishers' income through an increase in domestic market demand, is supported by predictions from the simple bioeconomic model, may increase income inequality between fishers and traders. Our findings highlight the real and urgent need to re-think fisheries management models in the context of small-scale fisheries and climate change worldwide to encompass social relationship dynamics.
The online version contains supplementary material available at (10.1007/s10113-021-01747-5).
小规模渔业对世界各地的生计至关重要，尤其是在热带地区。然而，气候变率和人为气候变化可能通过改变目标物种的丰度和分布严重影响小规模渔业。渔业使用者之间的社会关系，如鱼商之间的关系，能够决定每个人如何应对以及受渔业变化的影响程度。这些非正式的合作与竞争关系为捕鱼提供了途径、支持和激励，并影响利益分配。然而，个体行为及其对个体的影响往往是为小规模渔业正式管理提供依据的经济分析的主要关注点。这种关注点忽略了相关的社会关系。我们认为，这导致了现实与其在正式管理中使用的模型表示之间的脱节，这可能会降低正式渔业管理的效率和效力，并可能引发不良后果。在此，我们通过比较一个简单的生物经济渔业模型与一个纳入鱼商之间合作关系动态的社会生态模型的预测结果来检验这一观点。我们使用墨西哥洪堡鱿鱼渔业的实证案例研究来说明模型结果。我们发现：（1）包含关系动态的社会生态模型在预测观测到的渔业变量方面比简单生物经济模型的准确性有显著提高。（2）收入不平等结果与合作贸易关系的变化相关。当将环境温度作为物种生产动态的驱动因素纳入模型时，我们发现气候驱动的温度变率导致渔获量下降，进而减少渔民收入。通过在模型中纳入鱼商之间的合作关系（寡头垄断），我们观察到这种收入损失得到了抵消。随着物种分布变化，这些关系瓦解，导致渔民获得的价格上涨。最后，（3）我们的社会生态模型模拟表明，当前旨在通过增加国内市场需求来提高渔民收入的渔业发展计划，虽然得到简单生物经济模型预测的支持，但可能会加剧渔民和鱼商之间的收入不平等。我们的研究结果凸显了在全球小规模渔业和气候变化背景下重新思考渔业管理模型以纳入社会关系动态的现实紧迫性。
在线版本包含可在（10.1007/s10113 - 021 - 01747 - 5）获取的补充材料。
