新冠疫情新闻、恐慌及媒体报道对石油和黄金价格的影响：自回归分布滞后模型方法
The impact of COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage on the oil and gold prices: An ARDL approach.
作者信息
Atri Hanen, Kouki Saoussen, Gallali Mohamed Imen
机构信息
Department of Business Administration, College of Science and Humanities, Dhurma- Shaqra University, P.O Box 33, Shaqra, 11961, Saudi Arabia.
RIM RAF Lab. UR13ES56 (ESCT), Manouba University, Tunisia.
出版信息
Resour Policy. 2021 Aug;72:102061. doi: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2021.102061. Epub 2021 Apr 18.
Abstract
This study investigates whether COVID-19 news, panic and media coverage affect oil and gold prices. Using the ARDL approach over the period January 23, 2020 to June 23, 2020, we find that COVID-19 deaths and panic have negative effects on crude oil price. However, the propaganda created by the media in the long term has a negative impact on oil price. The empirical results show that the COVID-19 new infections, deaths and media coverage have positive effects on the gold price. Our findings prove that oil price is sensitive to bad news unlike gold price. According to our study, gold, which is a hedge against economic and geopolitical crises, is additionally a safe haven during COVID-19 health crisis. Overall, our results also demonstrate that the economic and financial uncertainty affect oil and gold prices negatively during the COVID-19 pandemic. We conclude that the impact of the COVID-19 new infections on oil and gold prices is depending on whether the disease is an epidemic or a pandemic.
摘要
本研究调查了新冠疫情相关新闻、恐慌情绪和媒体报道是否会影响石油和黄金价格。采用自回归分布滞后（ARDL）方法，对2020年1月23日至2020年6月23日这段时间进行研究，我们发现新冠死亡病例数和恐慌情绪对原油价格有负面影响。然而，从长期来看，媒体制造的舆论对油价有负面影响。实证结果表明，新冠新增感染病例数、死亡病例数和媒体报道对黄金价格有正面影响。我们的研究结果证明，与黄金价格不同，油价对坏消息敏感。根据我们的研究，黄金作为应对经济和地缘政治危机的避险资产，在新冠健康危机期间更是一个安全避风港。总体而言，我们的结果还表明，在新冠疫情大流行期间，经济和金融不确定性对石油和黄金价格有负面影响。我们得出结论，新冠新增感染病例数对石油和黄金价格的影响取决于该疾病是处于流行还是大流行状态。
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