Taylor Charles A, Boulos Christopher, Memoli Matthew J
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University; University of California, Berkeley.
School of International and Public Affairs, Columbia University.
medRxiv. 2022 Sep 14:2021.10.23.21265403. doi: 10.1101/2021.10.23.21265403.
Past pandemic experience can affect health outcomes in future pandemics. This paper focuses on the last major influenza pandemic in 1968 (H3N2), which killed up to 100,000 people in the US. We find that places with high influenza mortality in 1968 experienced 1-4% lower COVID-19 death rates. Our identification strategy isolates variation in COVID-19 rates across people born before and after 1968. In places with high 1968 influenza incidence, older cohorts experience lower COVID-19 death rates to younger ones. The relationship holds using county and patient-level data, as well as in hospital and nursing home settings. Results do not appear to be driven by systemic or policy-related factors, instead suggesting an individual-level response to prior influenza pandemic exposure. The findings merit investigation into potential biological and immunological mechanisms that account for these differences-and their implications for future pandemic preparedness.
过去的大流行经历会影响未来大流行中的健康结果。本文聚焦于1968年的上一次重大流感大流行（H3N2），此次大流行在美国造成了多达10万人死亡。我们发现，1968年流感死亡率高的地区，新冠死亡率低1%至4%。我们的识别策略分离出了1968年前后出生人群中新冠发病率的差异。在1968年流感发病率高的地区，老年人群体的新冠死亡率低于年轻人群体。这一关系在县级和患者层面的数据中成立，在医院和养老院环境中也成立。结果似乎并非由系统性或政策相关因素驱动，而是表明个体对先前流感大流行暴露的反应。这些发现值得对解释这些差异的潜在生物学和免疫学机制及其对未来大流行防范的影响进行调查。
