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中国“城市人口”和“城区面积”增长指标的关联度不断增强,是否反映出社会和经济的可持续性不断增强?

Does China's increasing coupling of 'urban population' and 'urban area' growth indicators reflect a growing social and economic sustainability?

机构信息

Minzu University of China, 27 Zhongguancun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081, China.

Minzu University of China, 27 Zhongguancun South Avenue, Beijing, 100081, China.

出版信息

J Environ Manage. 2022 Jan 1;301:113932. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.113932. Epub 2021 Oct 11.

Abstract

Over the last four decades, China has experienced rapid parallel economic development and urbanization, leading to internal mass -migrations of its people from increasingly marginalized rural areas to urban centers where job opportunities and wealth are now concentrated. We compare the relative temporal growth trends in population-related and land-(i.e., area-) related urbanization systems to evaluate China's urbanization in the context of the 'New-Type' Urbanization Program (2014-2020). Based on coupling coordination models, we observed that the two systems were overall slightly decoupled since spatial urban expansion commonly outgrew urban population growth, but the degree of coordination between the two parameters was increasing. Employing exploratory spatial data analysis, we revealed that a high degree of coupling coordination has spread from Eastern to Western provinces. Urban planning and land policies have contributed to an increasing urban vegetation cover and the control of excessive urban land expansions. While China's urbanization appears to have become increasingly sustainable due to the increasing degree of coupling coordination between its subsystems, ongoing urban expansions require strong oversight to limit the environmental impacts of the country's sprawling mega-cities.

摘要

在过去的四十年中,中国经历了经济的快速发展和城市化进程,导致人口从日益边缘化的农村地区向城市中心大规模迁移,而城市中心现在集中了更多的就业机会和财富。我们比较了与人口相关的和与土地(即面积)相关的城市化系统的相对时间增长趋势,以评估中国在“新型”城市化规划(2014-2020 年)背景下的城市化情况。基于耦合协调模型,我们观察到这两个系统总体上略有脱钩,因为空间城市扩张通常超过了城市人口增长,但两个参数之间的协调程度在增加。通过探索性空间数据分析,我们揭示了高度的耦合协调已经从东部省份扩展到西部省份。城市规划和土地政策有助于增加城市植被覆盖和控制过度的城市土地扩张。虽然中国的城市化由于其子系统之间的耦合协调程度的增加而变得更加可持续,但正在进行的城市扩张需要加强监督,以限制该国庞大的特大城市对环境的影响。

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