Research Center for Spatial Planning and Human-Environment System Simulation, School of Geography and Information Engineering, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China.
School of Arts and Communication, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan 430078, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Dec 10;18(24):13031. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182413031.
Urbanization has become one of the hot issues of global sustainable development, and is mainly characterized by urban population growth and construction land expansion. However, the inharmonious development of urban expansion and population migration has brought serious challenges to urban planning and management. China is the largest developing country in the world, and the urbanization process has accelerated over the past decades. In this paper, decoupling analysis was used to demonstrate the spatio-temporal relationship between urban expansion and population growth in 321 prefecture-level cities in China, providing a reference basis for sustainable development. The results showed that China's population, total GDP, and construction land area increased from 1990 to 2018. The rate of construction land expansion was larger in the eastern coastal and western regions than in the northeastern and central regions, but the population growth rate was not significantly different among these regions. According to the decoupling analysis, the relationships of population-GDP, construction land-GDP, and population-construction land were mainly weak decoupling, indicating that both the population growth and the construction land expansion lagged behind the economic development, and the population growth lagged behind construction land expansion. In addition, the results were analyzed based on China's four economic regions. Population and construction land area changes in the northeastern provinces experienced a shift from weak decoupling to expansive negative decoupling, then presented a strong decoupling. The decoupling state of population-construction land in the west region was relatively stable. The relationship between population and construction land in the central regions was mainly weak decoupling, and some cities developed into strong decoupling. The relationship between population and construction land in the east region experienced a shift from strong decoupling to weak decoupling, then demonstrated expansive negative decoupling, mainly manifested in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, Yangtze River Delta, and Pearl River Delta urban agglomerations. Therefore, the northeast region should take measures to promote regional population growth while reasonably controlling the expansion of construction land, the west region should focus on ecological protection and moderately attract population, the central region should control their population development and reasonably allocate land, and the east region should pay attention to and solve the citizenship problem of migrant workers in second-tier and third-tier cities when promoting new urbanization.
城市化已成为全球可持续发展的热点问题之一，主要特征是城市人口增长和建设用地扩张。然而，城市扩张和人口迁移的不协调发展给城市规划和管理带来了严峻挑战。中国是世界上最大的发展中国家，城市化进程在过去几十年中加速推进。本文采用脱钩分析方法，对中国 321 个地级市的城市扩张与人口增长的时空关系进行了分析，为可持续发展提供了参考依据。结果表明，1990 年至 2018 年，中国的人口、国内生产总值（GDP）和建设用地面积均呈增长趋势，其中东部沿海和西部地区建设用地扩张速度大于东北地区和中部地区，但各地区的人口增长率并无显著差异。根据脱钩分析，人口-GDP、建设用地-GDP 和人口-建设用地的关系主要为弱脱钩，表明人口增长和建设用地扩张均滞后于经济发展，且人口增长滞后于建设用地扩张。此外，还基于中国四大经济区域对结果进行了分析，东北三省的人口和建设用地面积变化经历了从弱脱钩到扩张性负脱钩，再到强脱钩的转变，西部地区的人口-建设用地脱钩状态较为稳定，中部地区的人口和建设用地关系主要为弱脱钩，部分城市发展为强脱钩，东部地区的人口和建设用地关系经历了从强脱钩到弱脱钩，再到扩张性负脱钩的转变，主要表现为京津冀、长三角和珠三角城市群。因此，东北地区应采取措施促进区域人口增长，同时合理控制建设用地扩张；西部地区应注重生态保护，适度吸引人口；中部地区应控制人口发展，合理配置土地；东部地区在推进新型城镇化时应关注并解决二线和三线城市外来务工人员的市民化问题。
