Nuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Oxford Vaccine Group, Department of Paediatrics, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Nat Commun. 2021 Nov 4;12(1):6370. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26449-8.
The high efficacy, low cost, and long shelf-life of the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine positions it well for use in in diverse socioeconomic settings. Using data from clinical trials, an individual-based model was constructed to predict its 6-month population-level impact. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluated the importance of epidemiological, demographic and logistical factors on vaccine effectiveness. Rollout at various levels of availability and delivery speed, conditional on vaccine efficacy profiles (efficacy of each dose and interval between doses) were explored in representative countries. We highlight how expedient vaccine delivery to high-risk groups is critical in mitigating COVID-19 disease and mortality. In scenarios where the availability of vaccine is insufficient for high-risk groups to receive two doses, administration of a single dose of is optimal, even when vaccine efficacy after one dose is just 75% of the two doses. These findings can help inform allocation strategies particularly in areas constrained by availability.
ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 疫苗具有高效、低成本和长保质期的特点，非常适合在不同社会经济环境下使用。利用临床试验数据，构建了一个基于个体的模型，以预测其 6 个月的人群水平影响。概率敏感性分析评估了流行病学、人口统计学和后勤因素对疫苗有效性的重要性。在具有代表性的国家中，根据疫苗有效性概况（每剂疫苗的有效性和剂量之间的间隔），探讨了在不同供应和交付速度水平下的推出情况。我们强调了及时向高风险人群提供疫苗对于减轻 COVID-19 疾病和死亡率的重要性。在疫苗供应不足以使高风险人群接种两剂疫苗的情况下，即使一剂疫苗的有效性仅为两剂疫苗的 75%，接种一剂疫苗也是最佳选择。这些发现可以帮助指导分配策略，特别是在疫苗供应受限的地区。
