Institute for Epidemiology, Social Medicine and Health Systems Research, Hannover Medical School, Hannover, Germany.
Center for Health Economics Research Hannover (CHERH), Hannover, Germany.
Int J Public Health. 2021 Mar 19;66:591027. doi: 10.3389/ijph.2021.591027. eCollection 2021.
To decrease the rapid growth of SARS-CoV-2 in Germany, a stepped lockdown was conducted. Acceptance and compliance regarding entering and exiting lockdown measures are key for their success. The aim of the present study was to analyse the population's preferences for exiting lockdown measures. To evaluate population's preferences and identify trade-offs between different exit strategies, a discrete choice experiment was conducted on 28-29 April (n = 1,020). Overall, six attributes and 16 choice sets (fractional-factorial design) without an opt-out were chosen. Conditional logit and latent class models were conducted. Most attributes proved to be significant. Two attributes dominated all others: Avoiding a mandatory tracing app, and providing sufficient intensive care capacities. Preventing a high long-term unemployment rate and avoiding the isolation of persons aged 70+, were relevant, though utilities were comparatively lower. We identified subgroups (elderly persons and persons with school children) with different utilities, which indicates specific attributes affecting them dissimilarly. The population prefers cautious re-opening strategies and is at least sceptical about the adoption of severe protection measures. Government should balance interests between subgroups.
为了减缓德国 SARS-CoV-2 的快速增长，德国采取了分阶段封锁措施。对于封锁措施的进入和退出，民众的接受度和配合度是成功的关键。本研究旨在分析民众对退出封锁措施的偏好。为了评估民众的偏好，并确定不同退出策略之间的权衡取舍，我们于 2020 年 4 月 28 日至 29 日（n=1020）进行了一项离散选择实验。总体而言，我们选择了六个属性和 16 个选择集（分数阶设计），没有退出选项。我们进行了条件逻辑分析和潜在类别模型分析。大多数属性被证明是显著的。两个属性主导了所有其他属性：避免强制性的追踪应用程序和提供足够的重症监护能力。预防高失业率和避免隔离 70 岁以上的人也很重要，尽管效用相对较低。我们确定了具有不同效用的亚组（老年人和有学龄儿童的人），这表明特定属性对他们的影响不同。民众更喜欢谨慎的重新开放策略，对采用严格的保护措施至少持怀疑态度。政府应在各利益群体之间平衡利益。
