Sugawara Hirotaka
KEK.
Proc Jpn Acad Ser B Phys Biol Sci. 2021;97(9):543-558. doi: 10.2183/pjab.97.027.
We continue (Ref. 1: Proc. Jpn. Acad. Ser. B 97, 22-49) to analyze the COVID-19 status. We concentrate on the following issues in this work:1. Effect of vaccination against the spreading of SARS-CoV-2.2. General landscape of the world situation concerning vaccinations.3. Some aspects of the new variants of SARS-CoV-2.Our findings include:1. With vaccinations, it is fair to say that we have entered a new phase in the fight against the virus SARS-CoV-2. We have analyzed some preliminary data to find how vaccinations can be effective against COVID-19 spreading. This analysis is based on, and is a continuation of, our first paper quoted in Ref. 1.2. If Tokyo (or Japan) continues to keep its vaccination schedule (starting in early April, 2021 and finishing it for elderly, 65 or older, in 4 months), it will see a sign of control of the virus in early June, 2021 although we see changes of this status due to new, more contagious variants.3. The strength (parameter β) of a new contagious variant can be estimated based on the initial data on the variant (Section 5).
我们继续(参考文献1:《日本科学院学报B辑》97卷,22 - 49页)分析新冠疫情状况。在这项工作中,我们关注以下问题:
疫苗接种对严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)传播的影响。
全球疫苗接种情况的总体态势。
SARS-CoV-2新变种的一些方面。
通过疫苗接种,可以说我们在抗击SARS-CoV-2病毒的斗争中进入了一个新阶段。我们分析了一些初步数据,以探究疫苗接种如何有效对抗新冠病毒传播。该分析基于参考文献1中引用的我们的第一篇论文,并是其延续。
如果东京(或日本)继续按照其疫苗接种计划(从2021年4月初开始,4个月内完成65岁及以上老年人的接种),尽管由于新的、传染性更强的变种会出现这种状况的变化,但在2021年6月初将看到病毒得到控制的迹象。
可以根据变种的初始数据(第5节)估算新传染性变种的强度(参数β)。