Department of Epidemiology and Health Statistics, West China School of Public Health and West China Fourth Hospital, Sichuan University, Chengdu, China.
Sichuan Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Chengdu, China.
Front Public Health. 2021 Oct 25;9:730611. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2021.730611. eCollection 2021.
As of June 7, 2021, the outbreak of Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) has spread to more than 200 countries. The global number of reported cases is more than 172.9 million, with more than 3.7 million deaths, and the number of infected individuals is still growing rapidly. Consequently, events and activities around the world were canceled or postponed, and the preparation for sporting events were greatly challenged. Under such circumstances, about 11,000 athletes from ~206 countries are arriving in Tokyo for the 32nd Summer Olympic Games. Therefore, it is urgently necessary to assess the occurrence and spread risk of COVID-19 for the Games. To explore effective prevention and control measures for COVID-19 in large international events through simulations of different interventions according to risk assessment. We used a random model to calculate the number of initial infected patients and used Poisson distribution to determine the number of initial infected patients based on the number of countries involved. Furthermore, to simulate the COVID-19 transmission, the susceptible-exposed-symptomatic-asymptomatic-recovered-hospitalized (SEIARH) model was established based on the susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) mathematical model of epidemic diseases. According to risk assessment indicators produced by different scenarios of the simulated interventions, the risk of COVID-19 transmission in Tokyo Olympic Games was assessed. The current COVID-19 prevention measures proposed by the Japan Olympic Committee need to be enhanced. And large-scale vaccination will effectively control the spread of COVID-19. When the protective efficacy of vaccines is 78.1% or 89.8%, and if the vaccination rate of athletes reaches 80%, an epidemic prevention barrier can be established.
截至 2021 年 6 月 7 日，2019 年冠状病毒病（COVID-19）疫情已蔓延至 200 多个国家。报告的全球病例超过 1.729 亿例，死亡人数超过 370 万，感染人数仍在迅速增长。因此，世界各地的活动和事件被取消或推迟，体育赛事的筹备工作受到了极大的挑战。在这种情况下，约有 11000 名来自 206 个国家的运动员抵达东京参加第 32 届夏季奥运会。因此，迫切需要评估奥运会期间 COVID-19 的发生和传播风险。 通过根据风险评估模拟不同干预措施，探索大型国际赛事中 COVID-19 的有效防控措施。 我们使用随机模型来计算初始感染患者的数量，并使用泊松分布根据涉及的国家数量来确定初始感染患者的数量。此外，为了模拟 COVID-19 的传播，我们根据传染病的易感-暴露-感染-恢复（SEIR）数学模型，建立了易感-暴露-症状-无症状-恢复-住院（SEIARH）模型。根据模拟干预不同情景产生的风险评估指标，评估了东京奥运会 COVID-19 的传播风险。 日本奥委会提出的当前 COVID-19 预防措施需要加强。大规模接种疫苗将有效控制 COVID-19 的传播。当疫苗的保护效力分别为 78.1%和 89.8%，且运动员的接种率达到 80%时，可以建立起防疫屏障。
