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商业周期预期对德国学徒市场的影响:评估新冠疫情的冲击

The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19.

作者信息

Muehlemann Samuel, Pfeifer Harald, Wittek Bernhard H

机构信息

LMU Munich, Munich School of Management, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 1, 80539 Munich, Germany.

IZA Institute of Labor Economics, Bonn, Germany.

出版信息

Empir Res Vocat Educ Train. 2020;12(1):8. doi: 10.1186/s40461-020-00094-9. Epub 2020 Sep 18.

Abstract

A firm's expectation about the future business cycle is an important determinant of the decision to train apprentices, especially as German firms typically offer apprenticeships to either fill future skilled worker positions, or as a substitute for other types of labor. The current coronavirus crisis will have a strong and negative impact on the German economy, according to the current business cycle expectations of German firms. To the extent that the training decisions of firms depend on these perceptions, we expect a downward shift in firm demand for apprentices and consequently also a decrease in the equilibrium number of apprenticeship contracts. To assess the impact of changes in business cycle expectations, we analyze German data on the apprenticeship market at the state-level and at the occupation-level within states from 2007 to 2019. We apply first-differences regressions to account for unobserved heterogeneity across states and occupations, allowing us to identify the association between changes in two popular measures of business cycle expectations (the ifo Business Climate Index and the ifo Employment Barometer) and subsequent changes in the demand for apprentices, the number of new apprenticeship contracts, unfilled vacancies and unsuccessful applicants. We find that the German apprenticeship market prior to the current crisis can be characterized by excess demand for apprentices (although there are matching problems in some states, with both a high share of unfilled vacancies and a high share of unsuccessful applicants). Taking into account the most recent data on business cycle expectations up to June 2020, we estimate that the coronavirus-related decrease in firms' expectations about the business cycle can be associated with a predicted 8% decrease in firm demand for apprentices and a 6% decrease in the number of new apprenticeship positions in Germany compared to 2019 (- 30,000 apprenticeship contracts; 95% confidence interval: ± 8000).

摘要

企业对未来商业周期的预期是决定是否培训学徒的一个重要因素,尤其是德国企业通常提供学徒岗位,要么是为了填补未来的技术工人职位,要么是作为其他类型劳动力的替代品。根据德国企业当前的商业周期预期,当前的冠状病毒危机将对德国经济产生强烈的负面影响。就企业的培训决策取决于这些认知而言,我们预计企业对学徒的需求将向下转移,因此学徒合同的均衡数量也将减少。为了评估商业周期预期变化的影响,我们分析了2007年至2019年德国州一级和州内职业层面学徒市场的数据。我们应用一阶差分回归来考虑各州和各职业间未观察到的异质性,从而使我们能够确定两种常用的商业周期预期指标(ifo商业景气指数和ifo就业晴雨表)的变化与学徒需求、新学徒合同数量、未填补空缺和未成功申请者数量的后续变化之间的关联。我们发现,当前危机之前的德国学徒市场的特点是对学徒存在过度需求(尽管在一些州存在匹配问题,未填补空缺和未成功申请者的比例都很高)。考虑到截至2020年6月的最新商业周期预期数据,我们估计,与冠状病毒相关的企业对商业周期预期的下降可能导致企业对学徒的需求预计下降8%,德国新学徒岗位数量比2019年下降6%(-30000份学徒合同;95%置信区间:±8000)。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/2122/7498563/637e77db7045/40461_2020_94_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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