Suppr超能文献

新冠疫情对商业预期的影响。

The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations.

作者信息

Meyer Brent H, Prescott Brian, Sheng Xuguang Simon

机构信息

Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, 1000 Peachtree St. NE, Atlanta, GA 30309, United States of America.

Department of Economics, American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW. Washington, DC 20016, United States of America.

出版信息

Int J Forecast. 2022 Apr-Jun;38(2):529-544. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.009. Epub 2021 Mar 5.

Abstract

We document and evaluate how businesses are reacting to the COVID-19 crisis through August 2020. First, on net, firms see the shock (thus far) largely as a demand rather than supply shock. A greater share of firms report significant or severe disruptions to sales activity than to supply chains. We compare these measures of disruption to their expected changes in selling prices and find that, even for firms that report supply chain disruptions, they expect to lower near-term selling prices on average. We also show that firms are engaging in wage cuts and expect to trim wages further before the end of 2020. These cuts stem from firms that have been disproportionally negatively impacted by the pandemic. Second, firms (like professional forecasters) have responded to the COVID-19 pandemic by lowering their one-year-ahead inflation expectations. These responses stand in stark contrast to that of household inflation expectations (as measured by the University of Michigan or the New York Fed). Indeed, firms' one-year-ahead inflation expectations fell precipitously (to a series low) following the onset of the pandemic, while household measures of inflation expectations jumped markedly. Third, despite the dramatic decline in firms' near-term inflation expectations, their longer-run inflation expectations have remained relatively stable.

摘要

我们记录并评估了企业在2020年8月之前对新冠疫情危机的应对情况。首先,总体而言,企业(到目前为止)很大程度上将此次冲击视为需求冲击而非供应冲击。报告销售活动受到重大或严重干扰的企业比例高于报告供应链受到干扰的企业比例。我们将这些干扰指标与其预期的销售价格变化进行比较,发现即使是那些报告供应链受到干扰的企业,它们预计平均会降低近期销售价格。我们还表明,企业正在削减工资,并预计在2020年底前进一步削减工资。这些削减源于受疫情负面影响过大的企业。其次,企业(如专业预测机构)通过降低其未来一年的通胀预期来应对新冠疫情。这些反应与家庭通胀预期(由密歇根大学或纽约联储衡量)形成鲜明对比。事实上,疫情爆发后,企业未来一年的通胀预期急剧下降(降至该系列的低点),而家庭通胀预期指标则大幅跃升。第三,尽管企业近期通胀预期大幅下降,但其长期通胀预期仍相对稳定。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/bf12/8846936/c1824984a73c/gr1_lrg.jpg

相似文献

1
The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on business expectations.
Int J Forecast. 2022 Apr-Jun;38(2):529-544. doi: 10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.02.009. Epub 2021 Mar 5.
2
Business sentiments during India's national lockdown: Lessons for second and potential third wave.
Indian Econ Rev. 2021;56(2):335-350. doi: 10.1007/s41775-021-00121-w. Epub 2021 Nov 29.
3
Small business under the COVID-19 crisis: Expected short- and medium-run effects of anti-contagion and economic policies.
J Jpn Int Econ. 2021 Sep;61:101138. doi: 10.1016/j.jjie.2021.101138. Epub 2021 May 21.
5
Firms' COVID-19 Pandemic Exposure and Corporate Cash Policy: Evidence from China.
Econ Model. 2022 Nov;116:105999. doi: 10.1016/j.econmod.2022.105999. Epub 2022 Aug 21.
6
Measuring business-level expectations and uncertainty: survey evidence and the COVID-19 pandemic.
Jpn Econ Rev (Oxf). 2021;72(3):509-532. doi: 10.1007/s42973-021-00078-8. Epub 2021 Jul 7.
7
Green management, access to credit, and firms' vulnerability to the COVID-19 crisis.
Small Bus Econ (Dordr). 2023 Apr 19:1-33. doi: 10.1007/s11187-023-00759-1.
8
The effect of business cycle expectations on the German apprenticeship market: estimating the impact of Covid-19.
Empir Res Vocat Educ Train. 2020;12(1):8. doi: 10.1186/s40461-020-00094-9. Epub 2020 Sep 18.
9
Digitalization and entrepreneurial firms' resilience to pandemic crises: Evidence from COVID-19 and the German Mittelstand.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2023 Jan;186:122135. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2022.122135. Epub 2022 Nov 1.
10
Digitalization and resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Telecomm Policy. 2023 May;47(4):102522. doi: 10.1016/j.telpol.2023.102522. Epub 2023 Mar 2.

引用本文的文献

1
Research on Dynamic Outpatient Respiratory Nosocomial Infection Control Methods Through Multi-Data Prediction.
Risk Manag Healthc Policy. 2025 Apr 15;18:1323-1332. doi: 10.2147/RMHP.S508760. eCollection 2025.
2
Utilizing Yin-Yang approach to reinforce fuzzy front-end activities and manufacturing startups' growth performance.
PLoS One. 2024 Oct 23;19(10):e0306779. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0306779. eCollection 2024.
3
Exploring the Dietary Supplement Use During COVID-19: Insights from Community Pharmacists, Pharmacy Staff, Academics, and Industry Experts.
J Integr Complement Med. 2024 Dec;30(12):1179-1188. doi: 10.1089/jicm.2023.0632. Epub 2024 Jul 24.
4
A business retrieval model using scenario planning and analytics for life during and after the pandemic crisis.
Healthc Anal (N Y). 2021 Nov;1:100004. doi: 10.1016/j.health.2021.100004. Epub 2021 Sep 20.
5
How R&D intensive firms react to the COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from a quasi-natural experiment.
Heliyon. 2023 Aug 20;9(9):e19329. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e19329. eCollection 2023 Sep.
6
Economic impact of COVID-19 across national boundaries: The role of government responses.
J Int Bus Stud. 2023 May 4:1-20. doi: 10.1057/s41267-023-00612-3.
7
Corporate going-concern report in early pandemic situation: Evidence from Indonesia.
Heliyon. 2023 Apr 1;9(4):e15138. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e15138. eCollection 2023 Apr.
8
Green, resilient, agile, and sustainable fresh food supply chain enablers: evidence from India.
Ann Oper Res. 2023 Jan 18:1-27. doi: 10.1007/s10479-023-05176-x.
9
Healthcare providers' intention to leave their jobs during COVID-19 pandemic: A cross-sectional study.
Health Sci Rep. 2022 Oct 4;5(6):e859. doi: 10.1002/hsr2.859. eCollection 2022 Nov.
10
Evaluation of the early-stage entrepreneurship activity in the United States during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Front Public Health. 2022 Sep 15;10:972203. doi: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.972203. eCollection 2022.

本文引用的文献

1
News and uncertainty about COVID-19: Survey evidence and short-run economic impact.
J Monet Econ. 2022 Jul;129:S35-S51. doi: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2022.02.004. Epub 2022 Feb 9.
2
Measuring labor supply and demand shocks during COVID-19.
Eur Econ Rev. 2021 Oct;139:103901. doi: 10.1016/j.euroecorev.2021.103901. Epub 2021 Sep 15.
3
How economic crises affect inflation beliefs: Evidence from the Covid-19 pandemic.
J Econ Behav Organ. 2021 Sep;189:443-469. doi: 10.1016/j.jebo.2021.04.036. Epub 2021 Jul 24.
4
The impact of COVID-19 on small business outcomes and expectations.
Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2020 Jul 28;117(30):17656-17666. doi: 10.1073/pnas.2006991117. Epub 2020 Jul 10.

文献AI研究员

20分钟写一篇综述,助力文献阅读效率提升50倍。

立即体验

用中文搜PubMed

大模型驱动的PubMed中文搜索引擎

马上搜索

文档翻译

学术文献翻译模型,支持多种主流文档格式。

立即体验