Beijing Key Laboratory of New Energy and Low-Carbon Development, Economics and Management School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China.
Electrical and Electronic Engineering School, North China Electric Power University, Beijing, China.
PLoS One. 2021 Nov 15;16(11):e0258691. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0258691. eCollection 2021.
China has set a goal to achieve peak CO2 emissions before 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. To achieve the goals of carbon peak and carbon neutrality, China needs to address the challenge of the large and still growing CO2 emission base. This paper investigated the energy consumption and CO2 emission in Beijing from 2020-2035 based on the energy elasticity coefficient and contribution value of the sub-energy increment (CVSI) method. Beijing is one of the first cities in China to propose the "carbon peak" target as of 2020. From 2020 Beijing will strive to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality. The results show that in 2035 the CO2 emission in Beijing may drop to 50% of 2020. This decline would be affected by economic growth, energy efficiency and the proportion of renewable energy use. Beijing's energy supply mainly comes from outside the region. Therefore, for Beijing, in addition to increasing the proportion of renewable energy sources outside the region, its own energy acceptance also needs to be strengthened, including strengthening energy storage construction, actively researching and promoting carbon capture and utilization of gas-fired units, which are effective ways to achieve carbon neutrality target.
中国已设定目标，力争在 2030 年前实现二氧化碳排放达到峰值，2060 年前实现碳中和。为实现碳达峰、碳中和目标，中国需要应对庞大且仍在增长的二氧化碳排放基数这一挑战。本文基于能源弹性系数和增量能值贡献值（CVSI）方法，研究了 2020-2035 年北京的能源消费和二氧化碳排放。北京是中国首批提出“碳达峰”目标的城市之一，到 2020 年将力争实现碳中和目标。研究结果表明，到 2035 年，北京市的二氧化碳排放量可能会下降到 2020 年的 50%。这一下降将受到经济增长、能源效率和可再生能源使用比例的影响。北京的能源供应主要来自于区域外。因此，对于北京来说，除了增加区域外可再生能源的比例外，还需要加强自身的能源接纳能力，包括加强储能建设，积极研究和推广燃气机组碳捕集及利用，这些都是实现碳中和目标的有效途径。
