Qiu Joseph
American Risk and Insurance Association Malvern Pennsylvania USA.
Risk Manag Insur Rev. 2020 Winter;23(4):293-304. doi: 10.1111/rmir.12160. Epub 2020 Nov 26.
COVID-19 has proven that pandemic risk deems to the type of catastrophe risk that needs to be treated seriously, by both society and the insurance industry. A key element to measure, manage, and transfer pandemic risk is the modeling capability. This paper first reviews the insured loss from COVID-19 and the impact on the insurance industry. Then, current pandemic risk modeling capabilities and how insurance industry uses these models are evaluated. Some suggestions are made in terms of how these models can be improved in the future and how they can assist in insuring the pandemic risk. Finally, the nonmodeling elements of pandemic risk transfer and the government's role are discussed.
新冠疫情已证明，大流行风险属于那种需要社会和保险业都认真对待的灾难风险类型。衡量、管理和转移大流行风险的一个关键要素是建模能力。本文首先回顾了新冠疫情造成的保险损失以及对保险业的影响。然后，评估了当前的大流行风险建模能力以及保险业如何使用这些模型。就未来如何改进这些模型以及它们如何协助承保大流行风险提出了一些建议。最后，讨论了大流行风险转移的非建模要素以及政府的作用。
