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冷门还是热门:投资决策中的结果效应

Longshot or Favorite: The Ending Effect in Investment Decisions.

作者信息

Wang Qi, Zhang JiaYuan, Xing Cai

机构信息

Department of Psychology, Renmin University of China, Beijing, China.

出版信息

Front Psychol. 2021 Nov 2;12:708211. doi: 10.3389/fpsyg.2021.708211. eCollection 2021.

Abstract

The ending effect describes the phenomenon that at the end of a series of repeated risky decision-making tasks, participants become more likely to engage in risk-taking behavior. Past research has suggested that the ending effect might be caused by a motivational shift induced by changes in time perception. Previous studies mainly tested this phenomenon in a binary decision-making setting (e.g., a decision-making task usually includes two alternatives). However, none of these prior studies included safe options and risky options that differed in risk levels. To address this knowledge gap, the present study replicated the ending effect in a repeated decision-making task that included both a safe option and risky options that differed in risk levels ( = 104). We found that at the end of the decision-making task, participants became more likely to engage in risk-taking and to favor the option with the highest risk. Further, we found that the investment likelihood and investment amount of high-risk options both increased significantly at the ending. In addition, a shift in favoring the safe option emerged in the noninformed condition at the end. We also found that the emotional motivation in the last round could predict the increased preference for high-risk at the ending. This study extended previous findings on the ending effect by adopting a more complex decision-making scenario and, more broadly, helped further our understanding of the psychological consequences of perceived endings.

摘要

结束效应描述了这样一种现象

在一系列重复的风险决策任务结束时,参与者更有可能采取冒险行为。过去的研究表明,结束效应可能是由时间感知变化引起的动机转变所致。以往的研究主要在二元决策情境中测试这种现象(例如,决策任务通常包括两个选项)。然而,这些先前的研究都没有纳入风险水平不同的安全选项和风险选项。为了填补这一知识空白,本研究在一个重复决策任务中重现了结束效应,该任务包括一个安全选项和风险水平不同的风险选项( = 104)。我们发现,在决策任务结束时,参与者更有可能采取冒险行为,并倾向于选择风险最高的选项。此外,我们发现高风险选项的投资可能性和投资金额在结束时均显著增加。此外,在最后不知情的情况下出现了偏向安全选项的转变。我们还发现,最后一轮的情感动机可以预测结束时对高风险选项偏好的增加。本研究通过采用更复杂的决策情境扩展了先前关于结束效应的研究结果,更广泛地说,有助于进一步加深我们对感知到的结束所产生的心理后果的理解。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/12da/8592974/0147a4d71c9c/fpsyg-12-708211-g0001.jpg

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