Department of Mathematics and Applied Mathematics, University of Johannesburg, Auckland Park Kingsway Campus, Johannesburg P. O. Box 524, 2006, South Africa.
Postdoc Fellow Department of Mathematics, Faculty of Science and Technology, Universitas Airlangga, Surabaya 60115, Indonesia.
Math Biosci Eng. 2021 Sep 2;18(6):7580-7601. doi: 10.3934/mbe.2021375.
Human Listeria infection is a food-borne disease caused by the consumption of contaminated food products by the bacterial pathogen, Listeria. In this paper, we propose a mathematical model to analyze the impact of media campaigns on the spread and control of Listeriosis. The model exhibited three equilibria namely; disease-free, Listeria-free and endemic equilibria. The food contamination threshold is determined and the local stability analyses of the model is discussed. Sensitivity analysis is done to determine the model parameters that most affect the severity of the disease. Numerical simulations were carried out to assess the role of media campaigns on the Listeriosis spread. The results show that; an increase in the intensity of the media awareness campaigns, the removal rate of contaminated food products, a decrease in the contact rate of Listeria by humans results in fewer humans getting infected, thus leading to the disease eradication. An increase in the depletion of media awareness campaigns results in more humans being infected with Listeriosis. These findings may significantly impact policy and decision-making in the control of Listeriosis disease.
人类李斯特菌感染是一种食源性疾病,由食入被细菌病原体李斯特菌污染的食物产品引起。在本文中,我们提出了一个数学模型来分析媒体宣传活动对李斯特菌病传播和控制的影响。该模型表现出三个平衡点,即无病、无李斯特菌和地方性平衡点。确定了食物污染阈值,并讨论了模型的局部稳定性分析。进行了敏感性分析,以确定对疾病严重程度影响最大的模型参数。进行了数值模拟,以评估媒体宣传活动在李斯特菌病传播中的作用。结果表明,增加媒体宣传活动的强度、增加污染食品的去除率、减少人类接触李斯特菌的速度,都会导致感染人数减少,从而实现疾病的消除。而媒体宣传活动的减少会导致更多的人感染李斯特菌病。这些发现可能会对李斯特菌病控制的政策和决策产生重大影响。