Clinical Epidemiology Program, Ottawa Hospital Research Institute, The Ottawa Hospital Civic Campus, 1053 Carling Ave, Ottawa, ON, K1Y 4E9, Canada.
Public Health Ontario, Toronto, ON, Canada.
BMC Public Health. 2021 Nov 25;21(1):2162. doi: 10.1186/s12889-021-12226-1.
Multiple survey reports suggest that alcohol use has increased in Canada during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, less is known about how per capita alcohol sales, which predict population-level alcohol use, have changed and whether changes in alcohol sales differ from changes in sales of other products due to pandemic factors.
We obtained monthly retail sales data by industry from Statistics Canada, for the six largest provinces in Canada (containing 93% of the national population), between January 2010 and November 2020, representing time before and 9 months after the start of the pandemic in Canada. We used an interrupted time series analysis to estimate pandemic impacts on the dollar value of monthly per capita (per individuals 15+ years) alcohol, essential and non-essential retail sales. We adjusted our analyses for pre-pandemic sales trends, inflation, seasonality and changing population demographics over time.
During the first 9 months of the pandemic, the values of per capita alcohol, essential and non-essential sales were, respectively, 13.2% higher, 3.6% higher and 13.1% lower than the average values during the same period in the prior 3 years. Interrupted time series models showed significant level change for the value of monthly per capita alcohol sales (+$4.86, 95% CIs: 2.88, 6.83), essential sales (-$59.80, 95% CIs: - 78.47, - 41.03) and non-essential sales (-$308.70, 95% CIs: - $326.60, - 290.79) during the pandemic. Alcohol sales were consistently elevated during the pandemic, and the pre- and post-pandemic slopes were comparable. In contrast, essential and non-essential retail sales declined in the early months of the pandemic before returning to regular spending levels.
During the first 9 months of the pandemic, per capita alcohol sales were moderately elevated in Canada. In contrast, non-essential sales were lower than prior years, driven by large decreases during the initial months of the pandemic. These findings suggest that the pandemic was associated with increased population-level alcohol consumption, which may lead to increased alcohol-related harms. Ongoing research is needed to examine how factors, including pandemic-related stressors and specific alcohol sales-related policies, may have influenced changes in alcohol use and harms.
多项调查报告显示，在 COVID-19 大流行期间，加拿大的饮酒量有所增加。然而，人们对预测人群饮酒量的人均酒精销售量的变化知之甚少，也不知道由于大流行因素，酒精销售量的变化是否与其他产品的销售量变化不同。
我们从加拿大统计局获得了 2010 年 1 月至 2020 年 11 月期间加拿大六个最大省份（占全国人口的 93%）按行业划分的每月零售销售数据，代表大流行前和加拿大大流行开始后 9 个月的时间。我们使用中断时间序列分析来估计大流行对每月人均（15 岁以上个人）酒精、必需品和非必需品零售销售额的美元价值的影响。我们根据大流行前的销售趋势、通货膨胀、季节性和随时间变化的人口统计数据调整了我们的分析。
在大流行的头 9 个月里，人均酒精、必需品和非必需品销售额分别比前 3 年同期的平均值高出 13.2%、3.6%和 13.1%。中断时间序列模型显示，每月人均酒精销售额（$4.86，95%置信区间：2.88，6.83）、必需品销售额（$59.80，95%置信区间：-78.47，-41.03）和非必需品销售额（$308.70，95%置信区间：-326.60，-290.79）的水平发生了显著变化。在大流行期间，酒精销售一直居高不下，而且大流行前后的斜率相当。相比之下，必需品和非必需品的零售销售在大流行的早期几个月下降，然后恢复到正常的支出水平。
在大流行的头 9 个月里，加拿大的人均酒精销售量适度上升。相比之下，非必需品的销售额低于前几年，这主要是由于大流行初期的大幅下降。这些发现表明，大流行与人群饮酒量的增加有关，这可能导致与酒精相关的伤害增加。需要进行持续研究，以检查包括与大流行相关的压力源和特定酒精销售相关政策在内的因素如何影响饮酒和伤害的变化。
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