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加拿大酒类专卖店的酒类销售情况可预测随后的 COVID-19 感染率:一项时间序列分析。

Alcohol sales in Canadian liquor outlets as a predictor of subsequent COVID-19 infection rates: a time-series analysis.

机构信息

Canadian Institute for Substance Use Research, University of Victoria, Victoria, BC, Canada.

Dalla Lana School of Public Health, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario, Canada.

出版信息

Addiction. 2022 Dec;117(12):3069-3078. doi: 10.1111/add.16011. Epub 2022 Aug 12.

DOI:10.1111/add.16011
PMID:35913022
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC9538471/
Abstract

AIMS

Government alcohol sales data were used to examine whether age 15+ per-capita alcohol consumption (PCAC) (i) changed during COVID-19 and (ii) predicted COVID-19 infections 2-5 weeks later.

DESIGN

Interrupted time-series analyses were applied to panels of data before and after COVID-19 restrictions were introduced in Canada.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

The populations, aged 15+, of the provinces of Ontario (ON), British Columbia (BC) and Nova Scotia (NS), Canada.

INTERVENTION

Expansion of home delivery options and hours of trading for liquor stores while restrictions on travel, social and economic activities were imposed by governments during COVID-19 from 17 March 2020 until 29 March 2021.

MEASUREMENTS

Weekly estimates of (i) age 15+ PCAC using sales data supplied by provincial government alcohol distributors for liquor stores, bars and restaurants, (ii) stringency of public health measures assessed by the Public Health Agency of Canada (PHAC) and (iii) new COVID-19 infections reported by PHAC.

FINDINGS

PCAC increased by 7.10% (P = 0.013) during the pandemic versus previous years, with increased private liquor store sales partly offset by reduced bar/restaurant sales. Consumption was positively associated with stringency of public health measures. Weekly PCAC was positively associated with new COVID-19 infections 2 weeks later (+6.34% for a one drink/week increase, P < 0.001). Lagged associations with COVID-19 infections 2 or 3 weeks later were observed for PCAC from all sales channels, with larger effect sizes per standard drink/person/week increase for on-premise outlets (+77.27% week 2, P = 0.009) than government liquor stores (+6.49%, week 2, P < 0.001) or private liquor stores (+7.13%, week 4, P < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

Alcohol consumption increased in three Canadian provinces during COVID-19 to degrees corresponding to the extent of the strictness of measures imposed to prevent viral spread. Increased consumption of alcohol was associated with increased COVID-19 infection rates 2 weeks later.

摘要

目的

利用政府的酒类销售数据,检验 15 岁以上人群人均酒精消费量(PCAC)在 COVID-19 期间是否发生变化,以及是否能预测 COVID-19 感染在 2-5 周后发生。

设计

在加拿大实施 COVID-19 限制措施前后,采用面板数据进行中断时间序列分析。

地点和参与者

加拿大安大略省(ON)、不列颠哥伦比亚省(BC)和新斯科舍省(NS)的 15 岁以上人群。

干预措施

在 COVID-19 期间,政府扩大了酒类商店的送货上门选项和营业时间,同时限制了旅行、社交和经济活动,从 2020 年 3 月 17 日至 2021 年 3 月 29 日。

测量

使用省级政府酒类经销商提供的酒类商店、酒吧和餐厅销售数据,每周估算(i)15 岁以上人群的 PCAC;(ii)加拿大公共卫生署(PHAC)评估的公共卫生措施的严格程度;(iii)PHAC 报告的新的 COVID-19 感染。

结果

与前几年相比,大流行期间 PCAC 增加了 7.10%(P=0.013),私人酒类商店销售的增加部分被酒吧/餐厅销售的减少所抵消。消费与公共卫生措施的严格程度呈正相关。每周 PCAC 与 2 周后新的 COVID-19 感染呈正相关(每周增加 1 份饮品,增加 6.34%,P<0.001)。所有销售渠道的 PCAC 与 COVID-19 感染 2 或 3 周后存在滞后关联,对于现场销售渠道,每标准饮品/人/周的增加量比政府酒类商店(增加 77.27%,第 2 周,P=0.009)或私人酒类商店(增加 7.13%,第 4 周,P<0.001)更大。

结论

在 COVID-19 期间,加拿大三个省份的酒精消费量增加,增加的程度与为防止病毒传播而实施的措施的严格程度相对应。酒精消费的增加与 2 周后 COVID-19 感染率的增加有关。

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