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宏观经济学中的通货膨胀目标制模型

Inflation Targeting Model in Macroeconomics.

作者信息

Iefymenko T I, Dunaev B B, Lyubich A A

机构信息

Academy of Financial Management, Kyiv, Ukraine.

出版信息

Cybern Syst Anal. 2021;57(6):968-977. doi: 10.1007/s10559-021-00422-1. Epub 2021 Nov 26.

Abstract

Empirical targeting by lowering inflation to the marginal level that causes monetary deflation and transition to depression is shown to increase the growth of the real GDP, while increasing inflation from the marginal level reduces the growth of the real GDP. The inflation is determined according to the theory of reproduction of the national economy by the mathematical function of the amount of money in circulation, foreign currency cash, interest rate, the cost of the utilized in production capital, the production input-output coefficient, and the unemployment rate. A model for regulating the economy by inflation targeting is developed, which allows the Central Bank of Ukraine to determine the target indicators for the period under consideration based on the statistical indicators of the previous period and through the nomogram of the inflation function of its arguments. The growth of the Ukrainian economy was modeled with an inflation target of four percent in 2021-2023 after the recession in 2020 caused by the coronavirus pandemic.

摘要

通过将通货膨胀率降至导致货币通缩并过渡到衰退的边际水平进行实证目标设定,已显示会增加实际国内生产总值(GDP)的增长,而从边际水平提高通货膨胀率则会降低实际GDP的增长。通货膨胀是根据国民经济再生产理论,由流通中的货币量、外币现金、利率、生产中使用的资本成本、生产投入产出系数和失业率的数学函数来确定的。开发了一种通过通货膨胀目标设定来调节经济的模型,该模型使乌克兰中央银行能够根据上一时期的统计指标,并通过其自变量的通货膨胀函数列线图,确定所考虑时期的目标指标。在2020年因新冠疫情导致衰退之后,对2021 - 2023年乌克兰经济增长进行了建模,设定通货膨胀目标为4%。

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