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大流行控制中社交距离的必要性:一种动态博弈论方法。

Necessity of Social Distancing in Pandemic Control: A Dynamic Game Theory Approach.

作者信息

Dahmouni Ilyass, Kanani Kuchesfehani Elnaz

机构信息

The Public Health Agency of Canada, Ottawa, Canada.

Deloitte Canada, Ottawa, Canada.

出版信息

Dyn Games Appl. 2022;12(1):237-257. doi: 10.1007/s13235-021-00409-9. Epub 2021 Nov 26.

Abstract

We model a society with two types of citizens: healthy and vulnerable individuals. While both types can be exposed to the virus and contribute to its spread, the vulnerable people tend to be more cautious as being exposed to the virus can be fatal for them due to their conditions, e.g., advanced age or prior medical conditions. We assume that both types would like to participate in in-person social activities as freely as possible and they make this decision based on the total number of infected people in the society. In this model, we assume that a local governmental authority imposes and administers social distancing regulations based on the infection status of the society and revises it accordingly in each time period. We model and solve for the steady state in four scenarios: (i) non-cooperative (Nash), (ii) cooperative, (iii) egoistic, and (iv) altruistic. The results show that the Altruistic scenario is the best among the four, i.e., the healthy citizens put the vulnerable citizens' needs first and self-isolate more strictly which results in more flexibility for the vulnerable citizens. We use a numerical example to illustrate that the Altruistic scenario will assist with pandemic control for both healthy and vulnerable citizens in the long run. The objective of this research is not to find a way to resolve the pandemic but to optimally live in a society which has been impacted by pandemic restrictions, similar to what was experienced in 2020 with the spread of COVID-19.

摘要

我们构建了一个包含两种类型公民的社会模型

健康个体和易感染个体。虽然这两种类型的人都可能接触到病毒并促使其传播,但易感染人群往往更为谨慎,因为由于他们自身的状况,如高龄或先前存在的疾病,接触病毒对他们可能是致命的。我们假设这两种类型的人都希望尽可能自由地参与线下社交活动,并且他们基于社会中感染人数来做出这一决定。在这个模型中,我们假设地方政府当局根据社会的感染状况实施并管理社交距离规定,并在每个时间段相应地进行调整。我们对四种情景下的稳态进行建模和求解:(i)非合作(纳什)情景,(ii)合作情景,(iii)利己情景,以及(iv)利他情景。结果表明,利他情景在这四种情景中是最佳的,即健康公民将易感染公民的需求放在首位,并更严格地进行自我隔离,这使得易感染公民有了更多的活动灵活性。我们用一个数值例子来说明,从长远来看,利他情景将有助于健康公民和易感染公民应对疫情防控。本研究的目的不是找到解决疫情的方法,而是在一个受到疫情限制影响的社会中实现最优生活,类似于2020年新冠疫情传播期间所经历的情况。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/cb42/8620332/d95b3cdf2e84/13235_2021_409_Fig1_HTML.jpg

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