Division of Theoretical Physics, Department of Physics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Thessaloniki, Greece.
PharmaInformatics Unit, Research Center ATHENA, Athens, Greece.
PLoS One. 2020 Aug 11;15(8):e0237304. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0237304. eCollection 2020.
The COVID-19 pandemic has already had a shocking impact on the lives of everybody on the planet. Here, we present a modification of the classical SI model, the Fractal Kinetics SI model which is in excellent agreement with the disease outbreak data available from the World Health Organization. The fractal kinetic approach that we propose here originates from chemical kinetics and has successfully been used in the past to describe reaction dynamics when imperfect mixing and segregation of the reactants is important and affects the dynamics of the reaction. The model introduces a novel epidemiological parameter, the "fractal" exponent h which is introduced in order to account for the self-organization of the societies against the pandemic through social distancing, lockdowns and flight restrictions.
新冠疫情已经对全球每个人的生活造成了巨大影响。在这里，我们提出了对经典 SI 模型的修正，即分形动力学 SI 模型，它与世界卫生组织提供的疾病爆发数据非常吻合。我们在这里提出的分形动力学方法源于化学动力学，过去曾成功用于描述当反应物的混合和分离不完全且对反应动力学有影响时的反应动力学。该模型引入了一个新的流行病学参数“分形”指数 h，以说明通过社交距离、封锁和航班限制等措施，社会自身对疫情的组织能力。
