School of Natural & Computational Sciences, New Zealand Institute for Advanced Study and the Infectious Disease Research Centre, Massey University, Private Bag 102 904, North Shore Mail Centre, Auckland, New Zealand.
EEB, Eno Hall, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544, USA; Santa Fe Institute, Hyde Park Rd., Santa Fe, NM, USA.
Epidemics. 2021 Dec;37:100523. doi: 10.1016/j.epidem.2021.100523. Epub 2021 Nov 19.
The Covid-19 pandemic is of zoonotic origin, and many other emerging infections of humans have their origin in an animal host population. We review the challenges involved in modelling the dynamics of wildlife-human interfaces governing infectious disease emergence and spread. We argue that we need a better understanding of the dynamic nature of such interfaces, the underpinning diversity of pathogens and host-pathogen association networks, and the scales and frequencies at which environmental conditions enable spillover and host shifting from animals to humans to occur. The major drivers of the emergence of zoonoses are anthropogenic, including the global change in climate and land use. These, and other ecological processes pose challenges that must be overcome to counterbalance pandemic risk. The development of more detailed and nuanced models will provide better tools for analysing and understanding infectious disease emergence and spread.
新冠疫情（Covid-19）是一种人畜共患病，而许多其他新发人类传染病都源于动物宿主种群。我们综述了在建模控制传染病出现和传播的野生动物-人类界面动力学方面所涉及的挑战。我们认为，我们需要更好地了解这些界面的动态特性、病原体和宿主-病原体关联网络的基础多样性，以及环境条件在何种规模和频率上能实现从动物向人类的溢出和宿主转移。人畜共患病的出现主要是人为驱动的，包括气候变化和土地利用的全球变化。这些以及其他生态过程构成了必须克服的挑战，以平衡大流行风险。更详细和细致的模型的发展将为分析和理解传染病的出现和传播提供更好的工具。
