Arjkumpa Orapun, Picasso-Risso Catalina, Perez Andres, Punyapornwithaya Veerasak
Animal Health Section, The 4th Regional Livestock Office, Department of Livestock Development, Khon Kaen, Thailand.
Department of Veterinary Population Medicine, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN, United States.
Front Vet Sci. 2021 Nov 10;8:757132. doi: 10.3389/fvets.2021.757132. eCollection 2021.
Foot and mouth disease (FMD) is an important contagious transboundary disease that causes a significant economic loss for several countries. The FMD virus (FMDV) can spread very rapidly by direct and indirect transmission among susceptible animals. The complexity and magnitude of FMDV transmission at the initial stages of the epidemic can be expressed by the basic reproductive number ( ), and furthermore, control strategies can be assessed by the estimation of the effective reproductive number. In this study, we aimed to describe FMD outbreaks among smallholder cattle farms by subdistricts in the northern Thailand and compute the effective reproductive number for outbreaks caused by FMDV serotype O and overall serotypes, including serotype O, serotype A, and unidentified serotype, at the subdistrict level ( ) using an epidemic doubling time method. Field data of FMD outbreaks during 2015-2017 that affected 94 subdistricts in northern Thailand were assessed to estimate the . Results showed that 63.38% (90/142) of the FMD outbreak episodes in cattle were caused by FMDV serotype O. The average doubling time and the estimated of the outbreaks caused by FMDV serotype O and overall serotype were 2.80 and 4.67 months, and 1.06 and 1.04, respectively. Our results indicated that transmission of FMD in cattle at the subdistrict level in northern Thailand was not controlled ( > 1), which indicates the endemicity of the disease in the region. Although control measures are in place, the results from this study highlighted the need for enhancing FMD monitoring and control strategies in northern Thailand.
口蹄疫（FMD）是一种重要的传染性跨界疾病，给多个国家造成了重大经济损失。口蹄疫病毒（FMDV）可通过直接和间接传播在易感动物之间迅速传播。口蹄疫病毒在疫情初期传播的复杂性和规模可用基本繁殖数（ ）来表示，此外，可通过有效繁殖数的估算来评估控制策略。在本研究中，我们旨在描述泰国北部各分区小农户养牛场中的口蹄疫疫情，并使用疫情倍增时间法计算各分区由O型口蹄疫病毒以及包括O型、A型和未鉴定血清型在内的所有血清型引起的疫情的有效繁殖数（ ）。对2015 - 2017年期间影响泰国北部94个分区的口蹄疫疫情现场数据进行评估以估算 。结果显示，牛群中63.38%（90/142）的口蹄疫疫情发作是由O型口蹄疫病毒引起的。由O型口蹄疫病毒和所有血清型引起的疫情的平均倍增时间以及估算的 分别为2.80个月和4.67个月，以及1.06和1.04。我们的结果表明，泰国北部各分区牛群中的口蹄疫传播未得到控制（ > 1），这表明该地区该病呈地方流行性。尽管已采取控制措施，但本研究结果凸显了加强泰国北部口蹄疫监测和控制策略的必要性。
