Hagnell O, Lanke J, Rorsman B, Ohman R
Eur Arch Psychiatry Neurol Sci. 1986;235(4):192-6. doi: 10.1007/BF00379972.
In 1957 all inhabitants (2,612) in a delimited geographical area, Lundby, were examined by a psychiatrist. Personality traits were scored for each individual. During the following 15 years 58 men became alcoholics (44 who had been 15 years or over in 1957). Among the men who in 1957 were scored 'subsolid in combination with symptom neurosis' the risk of becoming an alcoholic was increased 13.5 to 15.8 times. Protective against alcoholism was 'subvalidity in combination with psychosomatic symptoms'. The men with this combination had their risk decreased 12 times. The prediction of alcoholism depended on which factors and which combinations were used. With a sensitivity of 50% a specificity of almost 90% was reached; with a sensitivity of 60% specificities between 70% and 80% were reached.
1957年，一位精神科医生对划定地理区域伦德比的所有居民（2612人）进行了检查。为每个人的人格特质打分。在接下来的15年里，58名男性成为了酗酒者（44名在1957年时已满15岁或以上）。在1957年被评为“结合症状性神经症的不稳固型”的男性中，成为酗酒者的风险增加了13.5至15.8倍。对酗酒有保护作用的是“结合心身症状的次有效型”。具有这种组合的男性其风险降低了12倍。酗酒的预测取决于所使用的因素及组合。当敏感度为50%时，特异度接近90%；当敏感度为60%时，特异度在70%至80%之间。
