Incidence of alcoholism among men in the Lundby community cohort Sweden, 1957-1972. Probabilistic baseline calculations.

The annual age-standardized incidence rate of alcohol dependence among men in the Lundby community cohort prospectively observed during 1957-1972 (N = 2550) was 130 per 100,000 (including "alcohol abuse," 300 per 100,000). The individual expectancy of developing alcohol dependence in a lifetime was 8.6% (including "alcohol abuse," 19.3%). Of the cumulative probability, 78% was manifested by those under 40 years of age.