Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China; University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China.
J Environ Manage. 2022 Feb 15;304:114190. doi: 10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.114190. Epub 2021 Dec 1.
The instability of international trade can threaten the resource security of resource-importing countries, while international trade helps address spatial mismatches between regional populations, economies, and resources. Ecological products are the basis for human survival and development, in which agri-livestock products are especially sensitive to trade fluctuation and closely related to human well-being. The external dependence is an important indicator to reveal the external supply risk of regional resources. Scientific understanding the external dependence of ecological products can reveal the potential risks of trade fluctuations to human well-being and ecological sustainability. In this study, the global status and trend of countries' external dependence of agri-livestock ecological products are investigated. The results showed that nearly 80% (141) of countries relied on imports to meet ecological product demands in 2018, in which Asian-African-Latin countries accounted for about 78%, which indicated that the instability of international trade would threaten the ecological resource security in 80% of the world's countries, especially for underdeveloped countries. Even worse, 68% of countries are increasing their external dependence of ecological products. Even if the intensity of ecological resource exploitation reaches the maximum sustainable utilization level, 60% (113) of countries are expected to need imports for meeting their ecological product demands in 2050. Moreover, even considering the agricultural technological upgrade and the consumption transformation, more than 50% (94) of countries are still net importers of ecological products. Therefore, trade liberalization is still one of the important means to reduce resource security risks caused by trade instability. More notably, half of the countries in the world may sacrifice ecological sustainability to meet basic human well-being in the future under deglobalization.
国际贸易的不稳定可能威胁到资源进口国的资源安全，而国际贸易有助于解决区域人口、经济和资源之间的空间不匹配问题。生态产品是人类生存和发展的基础，其中农畜产品对贸易波动特别敏感，与人类福祉密切相关。对外依存度是揭示区域资源对外供应风险的重要指标。科学认识生态产品的对外依存度，可以揭示贸易波动对人类福祉和生态可持续性的潜在风险。本研究调查了各国农畜生态产品对外依存度的全球状况和趋势。结果表明，2018 年近 80%（141 个）的国家依赖进口来满足生态产品需求，其中亚非拉国家约占 78%，这表明国际贸易的不稳定将威胁到全球 80%国家的生态资源安全，特别是对发展中国家而言。更糟糕的是，68%的国家正在增加其对生态产品的对外依存度。即使生态资源开发强度达到最大可持续利用水平，预计到 2050 年，60%（113 个）的国家仍将需要进口来满足其生态产品需求。此外，即使考虑到农业技术升级和消费转型，仍有超过 50%（94 个）的国家是生态产品的净进口国。因此，贸易自由化仍然是减少贸易不稳定引起的资源安全风险的重要手段之一。更值得注意的是，在去全球化的情况下，世界上一半的国家可能在未来为了满足基本的人类福祉而牺牲生态可持续性。
