School of Economics and Business Administration, Chongqing University, Chongqing, Peoples R China.
School of Economics and Management, Chongqing Jiaotong University, Chongqing, Peoples R China.
PLoS One. 2022 Jun 24;17(6):e0270390. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0270390. eCollection 2022.
With the development of economic globalization, the problem of unequal distribution of globalization dividends among and within countries has become increasingly serious, and reverse globalization has a great impact on the national economy and export trade. This paper uses the KOF Globalization Index and the world input-output tables in World Input-Output Database (WIOD), and empirically studies the transformation of a country's export trade and export structure in the context of reverse globalization from the perspectives of world, country, industry, subdivided manufacturing and service industry. The results show that reverse globalization has a significant non-linear negative effect on economic development and export trade. Compared with developed and European Union (EU) countries, the exports of developing and non-EU countries are more affected by reverse globalization shocks. Reverse globalization has the greatest inhibition on the secondary industry exports, followed by the tertiary industry. The suppressive effects on the exports of 12 subdivided manufacturing and 14 subdivided service in China are significantly greater than that of the United States, but most of sub-industry exports in the United States are more sensitive. Besides, China's exports of high-product-complexity industry such as metal products, medicinal chemicals, electrical and optical products and mechanical equipments are greatly affected by reverse globalization, while the exports of water transportation, construction, land transportation are relatively less restrained.
随着经济全球化的发展，全球化红利在国家间和国家内分配不均的问题日益严重，逆全球化对国民经济和出口贸易产生了巨大影响。本文利用 KOF 全球化指数和世界投入产出数据库（WIOD）中的世界投入产出表，从世界、国家、行业、细分制造业和服务业的角度，实证研究了逆全球化背景下一国出口贸易和出口结构的转变。结果表明，逆全球化对经济发展和出口贸易具有显著的非线性负向影响。与发达国家和欧盟（EU）国家相比，发展中国家和非 EU 国家的出口受逆全球化冲击的影响更大。逆全球化对第二产业出口的抑制作用最大，其次是第三产业。中国 12 个细分制造业和 14 个细分服务业的出口抑制效应明显大于美国，但美国大多数细分行业出口更为敏感。此外，中国金属制品、药用化学品、电气光学产品和机械设备等高产品复杂度行业的出口受到逆全球化的严重影响，而水上运输、建筑、陆地运输的出口则相对较少受到抑制。
