Ho Chi Minh, Pham Toan Tan, Nguyen Hung Le-Phuc, Vo Duc Hong
The Research Centre in Business, Economics and Resources, Ho Chi Minh City Open University, 97 Vo Van Tan Street, District 3, Ho Chi Minh City, Viet Nam.
Heliyon. 2021 Dec;7(12):e08453. doi: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2021.e08453. Epub 2021 Nov 26.
Vietnam has been considered one of the few countries that put the COVID-19 pandemic under control and successfully achieved solid economic growth in 2020. However, the national economy has been hit hard by the pandemic in 2021. National borders across the countries have been closed for an extended time. As such, supporting local industries is essential to sustain economic growth. This study measures the market risks across industries in Vietnam before and during the COVID-19 period. Two important measures, the Value-at-Risk and the Conditional Value-at-Risk, are used for the 2012-2020 period. We then extend the analyses by estimating the market risks using the monthly VaR for the 2019-2020 period. Key findings from this study can be summarized as follows. First, market risks across the Vietnamese industries have changed significantly in response to the pandemic, both at the level and their rankings. Second, among the changes, the services industry appears to be hardest hit by the pandemic as expected, whereas the education sector has significantly improved its standing during these challenging times. Our analysis also confirms that complete lockdowns negatively affect the market risk of various Vietnamese industries. We note that the service industry is a critical contributor to the Vietnamese economy and that lockdown during the pandemic does matter to the market risk. Policy implications have emerged on these findings.
越南被视为少数几个成功控制新冠疫情并在2020年实现稳健经济增长的国家之一。然而，2021年越南国民经济受到疫情的沉重打击。各国边境长期关闭。因此，支持本地产业对于维持经济增长至关重要。本研究衡量了新冠疫情之前及期间越南各行业的市场风险。在2012 - 2020年期间，使用了两个重要指标，即风险价值（Value-at-Risk）和条件风险价值（Conditional Value-at-Risk）。然后，我们通过估计2019 - 2020年期间的月度风险价值（VaR）来扩展分析。本研究的主要发现可总结如下。首先，越南各行业的市场风险因疫情而发生了显著变化，无论是在水平上还是在排名上。其次，在这些变化中，服务业如预期般似乎受疫情冲击最严重，而教育部门在这些充满挑战的时期显著提升了其地位。我们的分析还证实，全面封锁对越南各行业的市场风险产生负面影响。我们注意到服务业是越南经济的关键贡献者，疫情期间的封锁对市场风险确实有影响。基于这些发现得出了政策启示。
