Škare Marinko, Soriano Domingo Riberio, Porada-Rochoń Małgorzata
Juraj Dobrila University of Pula, Faculty of Economics and Tourism "Dr. Mijo Mirković", Croatia.
University of Valencia, Spain.
Technol Forecast Soc Change. 2021 Feb;163:120469. doi: 10.1016/j.techfore.2020.120469. Epub 2020 Nov 16.
Our paper is among the first to measure the potential effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on the tourism industry. Using panel structural vector auto-regression (PSVAR) (Pedroni, 2013) on data from 1995 to 2019 in 185 countries and system dynamic modeling (real-time data parameters connected to COVID-19), we estimate the impact of the pandemic crisis on the tourism industry worldwide. Past pandemic crises operated mostly through idiosyncratic shocks' channels, exposing domestic tourism sectors to large adverse shocks. Once domestic shocks perished (zero infection cases), inbound arrivals revived immediately. The COVID-19 pandemic, however, is different; and recovery of the tourism industry worldwide will take more time than the average expected recovery period of 10 months. Private and public policy support must be coordinated to assure capacity building and operational sustainability of the travel tourism sector during 2020-2021. COVID-19 proves that pandemic outbreaks have a much larger destructive impact on the travel and tourism industry than previous studies indicate. Tourism managers must carefully assess the effects of epidemics on business and develop new risk management methods to deal with the crisis. Furthermore, during 2020-2021, private and public policy support must be coordinated to sustain pre-COVID-19 operational levels of the tourism and travel sector.
我们的论文是首批衡量新冠疫情对旅游业潜在影响的研究之一。我们运用面板结构向量自回归模型（PSVAR）（佩德罗尼，2013），基于185个国家1995年至2019年的数据，并结合系统动态建模（与新冠疫情相关的实时数据参数），来估算这场疫情危机对全球旅游业的影响。过去的疫情危机大多通过特殊冲击渠道发挥作用，使国内旅游部门遭受巨大的负面冲击。一旦国内冲击消退（零感染病例），入境游客数量会立即恢复。然而，新冠疫情有所不同；全球旅游业的复苏所需时间将超过平均预期的10个月恢复期。必须协调私人和公共政策支持，以确保2020年至2021年期间旅游旅游业的能力建设和运营可持续性。新冠疫情证明，疫情爆发对旅游和旅游业的破坏性影响比以往研究表明的要大得多。旅游管理者必须仔细评估疫情对业务的影响，并开发新的风险管理方法来应对危机。此外，在2020年至2021年期间，必须协调私人和公共政策支持，以维持旅游业在新冠疫情之前的运营水平。
