Earth to Ocean Research Group, Simon Fraser University, Burnaby, BC, Canada.
Laboratory of Hydraulics, Hydrology and Glaciology (VAW), ETH Zurich, Zurich, Switzerland.
Nat Commun. 2021 Dec 7;12(1):6816. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-26897-2.
Glacier retreat poses risks and benefits for species of cultural and economic importance. One example is Pacific salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), supporting subsistence harvests, and commercial and recreational fisheries worth billions of dollars annually. Although decreases in summer streamflow and warming freshwater is reducing salmon habitat quality in parts of their range, glacier retreat is creating new streams and lakes that salmon can colonize. However, potential gains in future salmon habitat associated with glacier loss have yet to be quantified across the range of Pacific salmon. Here we project future gains in Pacific salmon freshwater habitat by linking a model of glacier mass change for 315 glaciers, forced by five different Global Climate Models, with a simple model of salmon stream habitat potential throughout the Pacific Mountain ranges of western North America. We project that by the year 2100 glacier retreat will create 6,146 (±1,619) km of new streams accessible for colonization by Pacific salmon, of which 1,930 (±569) km have the potential to be used for spawning and juvenile rearing, representing 0 to 27% gains within the 18 sub-regions we studied. These findings can inform proactive management and conservation of Pacific salmon in this era of rapid climate change.
冰川退缩给具有文化和经济重要性的物种带来了风险和益处。例如，太平洋三文鱼（Oncorhynchus spp.），支持着每年价值数十亿美元的生计捕捞、商业和娱乐性渔业。尽管夏季径流量减少和淡水变暖正在降低其部分分布范围内三文鱼的栖息地质量，但冰川退缩正在创造新的溪流和湖泊，三文鱼可以在其中定居。然而，与冰川流失相关的未来三文鱼栖息地的潜在收益尚未在整个太平洋三文鱼分布范围内进行量化。在这里，我们通过将 315 个冰川的质量变化模型与一个简单的太平洋山脉西部北美鲑鱼溪流栖息地潜力模型联系起来，来预测未来太平洋三文鱼淡水资源的变化。我们预测，到 2100 年，冰川退缩将创造 6146（±1619）公里可供太平洋三文鱼殖民的新溪流，其中 1930（±569）公里有潜力用于产卵和幼鱼养殖，这代表在我们研究的 18 个亚区中，有 0 到 27%的收益。这些发现可以为快速气候变化时代的太平洋三文鱼的积极管理和保护提供信息。
