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澳大利亚 2019-20 年丛林大火期间心血管和呼吸道疾病急诊人次过多:两阶段中断时间序列分析。

Excess emergency department visits for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases during the 2019-20 bushfire period in Australia: A two-stage interrupted time-series analysis.

机构信息

School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.

School of Public Health and Preventive Medicine, Monash University, Level 2, 553 St Kilda Road, Melbourne, VIC 3004, Australia.

出版信息

Sci Total Environ. 2022 Feb 25;809:152226. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152226. Epub 2021 Dec 7.

DOI:10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152226
PMID:34890657
Abstract

The health effects of the unprecedented bushfires in Australia in 2019-20 have not been fully examined. We aimed to examine the excess emergency department (ED) visits related to the 2019-20 bushfires in New South Wales (NSW). We obtained weekly data of ED visits for cardiovascular and respiratory diseases in all the 28 Statistical Area Level 4 (SA4) regions in NSW during the bushfire seasons from 2017 to 2020. A two-stage interrupted time-series analysis was applied to quantify the excess risk for ED visits in 2019-20. The total number of excess ED visits, excess percentages, and their empirical confidence intervals (eCIs) were calculated to estimate the impacts of the bushfire season. A total of 416,057 records of cardiorespiratory ED visits were included in our analysis. The bushfire season in 2019-20 was significantly associated with a 6.0% increase (95% eCI: 1.9, 10.3) in ED visits for respiratory diseases and a 10.0% increase (95% eCI: 5.0, 15.2) for cardiovascular diseases, corresponding to 6177 (95% eCI: 1989, 10,166) and 3120 (95% eCI: 1628, 4544) excess ED visits, respectively. The percentage of excess ED visits was higher in regions with lower SES and high fire density. In the context of climate change, more targeted strategies should be developed to prevent adverse bushfire effects and recover from such extreme environmental events.

摘要

2019-20 年澳大利亚前所未有的丛林大火对健康的影响尚未得到充分研究。本研究旨在调查与 2019-20 年新南威尔士州(NSW)丛林大火相关的急诊部(ED)就诊人数的异常增加情况。我们获得了 2017 年至 2020 年丛林大火季节期间 NSW 所有 28 个统计区级别 4(SA4)地区的心血管和呼吸系统疾病每周 ED 就诊数据。采用两阶段中断时间序列分析来量化 2019-20 年 ED 就诊的超额风险。计算超额 ED 就诊人数、超额百分比及其经验置信区间(eCI),以评估丛林大火季节的影响。共纳入 416057 例心肺 ED 就诊记录进行分析。2019-20 年的丛林大火季节与呼吸系统疾病 ED 就诊增加 6.0%(95%eCI:1.9,10.3)和心血管疾病 ED 就诊增加 10.0%(95%eCI:5.0,15.2)显著相关,对应于呼吸系统疾病 ED 就诊的 6177(95%eCI:1989,10166)和 3120(95%eCI:1628,4544)例超额就诊,心血管疾病 ED 就诊的百分比在 SES 较低和火灾密度较高的地区更高。在气候变化的背景下,应制定更有针对性的策略来预防不利的丛林大火影响,并从此类极端环境事件中恢复。

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