Barraquand Frédéric, Nielsen Ólafur K
Institute of Mathematics of Bordeaux, CNRS, Talence, France.
Integrative and Theoretical Ecology, Labex COTE, University of Bordeaux, Pessac, France.
PeerJ. 2021 Nov 23;9:e12404. doi: 10.7717/peerj.12404. eCollection 2021.
Knowledge of survival rates and their potential covariation with environmental drivers, for both adults and juveniles, is paramount to forecast the population dynamics of long-lived animals. Long-lived bird and mammal populations are indeed very sensitive to change in survival rates, especially that of adults. Here we report the first survival estimates for the Icelandic gyrfalcon () obtained by capture-mark-recapture methods. We use a mark-recapture-recovery model combining live and dead encounters into a unified analysis, in a Bayesian framework. Annual survival was estimated at 0.83 for adults and 0.40 for juveniles. Positive effects of main prey density on juvenile survival (5% increase in survival from min to max density) were possible though not likely. Weather effects on juvenile survival were even less likely. The variability in observed lifespan suggests that adult birds could suffer from human-induced alteration of survival rates.
了解成年和幼年个体的存活率及其与环境驱动因素的潜在协变关系，对于预测长寿动物的种群动态至关重要。长寿鸟类和哺乳动物种群对存活率的变化确实非常敏感，尤其是成年个体的存活率。在此，我们报告了通过标记重捕法获得的冰岛矛隼（）的首次存活率估计值。我们在贝叶斯框架下使用一种标记重捕-回收模型，将活体和死亡个体的遭遇情况纳入统一分析。估计成年个体的年存活率为0.83，幼年个体为0.40。主要猎物密度对幼年个体存活率可能有积极影响（从最小密度到最大密度存活率增加5%），但可能性不大。天气对幼年个体存活率的影响可能性更小。观察到的寿命变异性表明成年鸟类可能受到人类导致的存活率改变的影响。
