Department of Disease Control, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
BMJ Glob Health. 2021 Dec;6(12). doi: 10.1136/bmjgh-2021-007518.
The African Union Bureau of Heads of State and Government endorsed the COVID-19 Vaccine Development and Access Strategy to vaccinate at least 60% of each country's population with a safe and efficacious vaccine by 2022, to achieve the population-level immunity needed to bring the pandemic under control. Using publicly available, country-level population estimates and COVID-19 vaccination data, we provide unique insights into the uptake trends of COVID-19 vaccinations in the 15 countries that comprise the Economic Community of West Africa States (ECOWAS). Based on the vaccination rates in the ECOWAS region after three months of commencing COVID-19 vaccinations, we provide a projection of the trajectory and speed of vaccination needed to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage rate of at least 60% of the total ECOWAS population. After three months of the deployment of COVID-19 vaccines across the ECOWAS countries, only 0.27% of the region's total population had been fully vaccinated. If ECOWAS countries follow this trajectory, the sub-region will have less than 1.6% of the total population fully vaccinated after 18 months of vaccine deployment. Our projection shows that to achieve a COVID-19 vaccination coverage of at least 60% of the total population in the ECOWAS sub-region after 9, 12 and 18 months of vaccine deployment; the speed of vaccination must be increased to 10, 7 and 4 times the current trajectory, respectively. West African governments must deploy contextually relevant and culturally acceptable strategies for COVID-19 vaccine procurements, distributions and implementations in order to achieve reasonable coverage and save lives, sooner rather than later.
非洲联盟国家元首和政府首脑局核可了《COVID-19 疫苗开发和获取战略》,目标是到 2022 年为每个国家至少 60%的人口接种安全有效的疫苗,以实现控制大流行所需的人群免疫力。利用公开的国家人口估计数和 COVID-19 疫苗接种数据,我们深入了解了西部非洲国家经济共同体(西非经共体)15 个成员国 COVID-19 疫苗接种的采用趋势。根据 COVID-19 疫苗接种开始三个月后西非经共体区域的接种率,我们对实现 COVID-19 疫苗接种覆盖率至少达到西非经共体总人口 60%所需的接种轨迹和速度进行了预测。在 COVID-19 疫苗在西非经共体国家部署三个月后,该区域只有 0.27%的总人口完全接种了疫苗。如果西非经共体国家遵循这一轨迹,那么在疫苗部署 18 个月后,该次区域将只有不到 1.6%的人口完全接种疫苗。我们的预测表明,要在 COVID-19 疫苗部署 9、12 和 18 个月后,使西非经共体次区域至少 60%的总人口得到疫苗接种,接种速度必须分别提高到目前轨迹的 10、7 和 4 倍。西非各国政府必须部署符合具体国情和文化可接受的 COVID-19 疫苗采购、分配和实施战略,以便尽早实现合理的覆盖范围并拯救生命。