Center for Health Emergencies, Bruno Kessler Foundation, Trento, Italy.
Epilab-JRU, FEM-FBK Joint Research Unit, Trento, Italy.
Nat Commun. 2021 Dec 14;12(1):7272. doi: 10.1038/s41467-021-27532-w.
COVID-19 vaccination is allowing a progressive release of restrictions worldwide. Using a mathematical model, we assess the impact of vaccination in Italy since December 27, 2020 and evaluate prospects for societal reopening after emergence of the Delta variant. We estimate that by June 30, 2021, COVID-19 vaccination allowed the resumption of about half of pre-pandemic social contacts. In absence of vaccination, the same number of cases is obtained by resuming only about one third of pre-pandemic contacts, with about 12,100 (95% CI: 6,600-21,000) extra deaths (+27%; 95% CI: 15-47%). Vaccination offset the effect of the Delta variant in summer 2021. The future epidemic trend is surrounded by substantial uncertainty. Should a pediatric vaccine (for ages 5 and older) be licensed and a coverage >90% be achieved in all age classes, a return to pre-pandemic society could be envisioned. Increasing vaccination coverage will allow further reopening even in absence of a pediatric vaccine.
COVID-19 疫苗接种正在全球范围内逐步放宽限制。我们使用数学模型评估了意大利自 2020 年 12 月 27 日以来疫苗接种的影响，并评估了在 Delta 变体出现后社会重新开放的前景。我们估计，到 2021 年 6 月 30 日，COVID-19 疫苗接种使社交接触恢复到了疫情前的一半左右。如果没有疫苗接种，要达到相同数量的病例，就需要恢复大约三分之一的疫情前的接触，这会导致约 12100 人（95%CI：6600-21000）额外死亡（增加 27%；95%CI：15-47%）。疫苗接种缓解了 2021 年夏季 Delta 变异的影响。未来的疫情趋势存在很大的不确定性。如果获得授权并在所有年龄段达到 >90%的覆盖率，那么未来可能会恢复到疫情前的社会状态。增加疫苗接种覆盖率将使社会在没有儿童疫苗的情况下进一步开放。
