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城市多样性与疫情韧性:以新冠疫情为例

Urban diversity and epidemic resilience: The case of the COVID-19.

作者信息

Hananel Ravit, Fishman Ram, Malovicki-Yaffe Nechumi

机构信息

Department of Public Policy, School of Social and Policy Studies, Gerson H Gordon Faculty of Social Sciences, Tel-Aviv University, Tel-Aviv, Israel.

出版信息

Cities. 2022 Mar;122:103526. doi: 10.1016/j.cities.2021.103526. Epub 2021 Dec 10.

Abstract

The spread of the coronavirus pandemic offers a unique opportunity to improve our understanding of the role of urban planning strategies in the resilience of urban communities confronting a pandemic. This study examines the relationship between urban diversity and epidemiological resilience by empirically assessing the relation between the level of neighborhood homogeneity and the probability of being infected by the coronavirus. We focus on the ultra-Orthodox Jewish community in Israel, a relatively closed community that was disproportionately and severely affected by the pandemic. The findings indicate a monotonic but nonlinear relationship between the level of ultra-Orthodox prevalence in a neighborhood and a resident's probability of contracting COVID-19. As the fraction of ultra-Orthodox individuals in the neighborhood decreases, the fraction of infected population decreases significantly and more strongly that can be explained without recourse to urban diversity considerations. This relationship is found to be significant and strong, even when other variables are accounted for that had hitherto been perceived as central to coronavirus distribution, such as housing density, socioeconomic level of the neighborhood, and number of people per household. The findings are important and relevant to many societies around the globe in which a variety of populations have a separatist lifestyle.

摘要

新冠疫情的蔓延提供了一个独特的契机,能让我们更好地理解城市规划策略在城市社区应对疫情韧性方面所起的作用。本研究通过实证评估邻里同质化程度与感染新冠病毒概率之间的关系,来考察城市多样性与流行病学韧性之间的关系。我们聚焦于以色列的极端正统犹太社区,这是一个相对封闭的社区,在疫情中受到了不成比例的严重影响。研究结果表明,邻里中极端正统派居民的比例与居民感染新冠病毒的概率之间存在单调但非线性的关系。随着邻里中极端正统派个体比例的下降,感染人群的比例显著下降,且下降幅度比不考虑城市多样性因素时更为明显。即使考虑到其他迄今被视为新冠病毒传播核心的变量,如住房密度、邻里的社会经济水平和每户人数,这种关系依然显著且强烈。这些研究结果对全球许多社会都具有重要意义,因为在这些社会中,各种人群都有着分离主义的生活方式。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/ace9/8660207/3b0f97640054/gr1_lrg.jpg

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