Dang Hai-Anh, Lanjouw Peter, Vrijburg Elise
Development Data Group the World Bank Washington District of Columbia USA.
Department of Economics Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam the Netherlands.
Rev Dev Econ. 2021 Nov;25(4):1816-1837. doi: 10.1111/rode.12833. Epub 2021 Oct 2.
India has been hard-hit by the Covid-19 pandemic. The virus has exacted a heavy toll in terms of lives lost and deteriorating health outcomes. The economic consequences of the pandemic have been similarly grim. In this paper we attempt an initial, interim, assessment of the impacts of the crisis on poverty. We review the growing literature that considers emerging poverty impacts, noting that there remain significant knowledge gaps due to limited evidence on current welfare outcomes. We analyze pre-Covid survey data to examine the incidence of chronic poverty and downward mobility during a period of rapid economic growth and declining poverty. A profile of poverty during such a period might offer a plausible, partial, window on population groups currently at risk. We suggest that, notwithstanding the severe initial impacts of the crisis on poverty, there are grounds for expecting further consequences going forward. As the virus has spread out of the relatively affluent cities, and as economic stagnation persists, rural areas, with historically higher rates of chronic poverty and vulnerability, may see particularly sharp increases in poverty. While recent vaccination developments offer some grounds for optimism, there remains an urgent need to identify, implement and amplify effective policy alleviation measures.
印度受到了新冠疫情的沉重打击。该病毒在生命损失和健康状况恶化方面造成了巨大损失。疫情的经济后果同样严峻。在本文中，我们试图对危机对贫困的影响进行初步的、中期的评估。我们回顾了越来越多考虑新兴贫困影响的文献，指出由于当前福利结果的证据有限，仍然存在重大的知识空白。我们分析了新冠疫情之前的调查数据，以研究在经济快速增长和贫困率下降期间慢性贫困和向下流动的发生率。这一时期的贫困状况可能为当前面临风险的人群提供一个合理的、部分的观察窗口。我们认为，尽管危机对贫困产生了严重的初步影响，但仍有理由预期未来会有进一步的后果。随着病毒从相对富裕的城市蔓延开来，并且随着经济停滞持续，农村地区，由于历史上慢性贫困和脆弱性发生率较高，可能会出现贫困的特别急剧增加。虽然最近疫苗接种的进展提供了一些乐观的理由，但仍然迫切需要确定、实施和扩大有效的政策缓解措施。
