Blamey Laura K, Plagányi Éva E, Hutton Trevor, Deng Roy A, Upston Judy, Jarrett Annie
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Oceans and Atmosphere, Brisbane, Queensland, Australia.
Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organization, Oceans and Atmosphere, Hobart, Tasmania, Australia.
Conserv Biol. 2022 Jun;36(3):e13864. doi: 10.1111/cobi.13864. Epub 2021 Dec 20.
Short-lived, fast-growing species that contribute greatly to global capture fisheries are sensitive to fluctuations in the environment. Uncertainties in exact stock-environment relationships have meant that environmental variability and extremes have been difficult to integrate directly into fisheries management. We applied a management strategy evaluation approach for one of Australia's large prawn stocks to test the robustness of harvest control rules to environmental variability. The model ensemble included coupled environmental-population models and an alternative catchability scenario fitted to historical catch per unit effort data. We compared the efficacy of alternative management actions to conserve marine resources under a variable environment while accounting for fisher livelihoods. Model fits to catch per unit effort were reasonably good and similar across operating models (OMs). For models that were coupled to the environment, environmental parameters for El Niño years were estimated with good associated precision, and OM3 had a lower AIC score (77.61) than the base model (OM1, 80.39), whereas OM2 (AIC 82.41) had a similar AIC score, suggesting the OMs were all plausible model alternatives. Our model testing resulted in a plausible subset of management options, and stakeholders selected a permanent closure of the first fishing season based on overall performance of this option; ability to reduce the risk of fishery closure and stock collapse; robustness to uncertainties; and ease of implementation. Our simulation approach enabled the selection of an optimal yet pragmatic solution for addressing economic and conservation objectives under a variable environment with extreme events.
对全球捕捞渔业贡献巨大的短命、快速生长的物种对环境波动很敏感。确切的种群 - 环境关系的不确定性意味着环境变异性和极端情况一直难以直接纳入渔业管理。我们对澳大利亚的一种大型对虾种群应用了一种管理策略评估方法，以测试收获控制规则对环境变异性的稳健性。模型集合包括耦合的环境 - 种群模型以及根据历史单位努力量捕捞数据拟合的替代可捕性情景。我们比较了在考虑渔民生计的情况下，不同管理行动在可变环境下保护海洋资源的效果。对单位努力量捕捞量的模型拟合相当好，并且在不同操作模型（OMs）中相似。对于与环境耦合的模型，厄尔尼诺年份的环境参数估计具有良好的相关精度，并且OM3的AIC得分（77.61）低于基础模型（OM1，80.39），而OM2（AIC 82.41）具有相似的AIC得分，这表明这些OMs都是合理的模型替代方案。我们的模型测试得出了一组合理的管理选项子集，利益相关者根据该选项的整体表现选择了永久关闭第一个捕鱼季节；该选项能够降低渔业关闭和种群崩溃的风险；对不确定性具有稳健性；并且易于实施。我们的模拟方法能够选择一个最优且务实的解决方案，以在具有极端事件的可变环境下实现经济和保护目标。
