West R R
J R Coll Physicians Lond. 1987 Jan;21(1):73-6.
In the analysis of mortality statistics high age-specific death rates could be interpreted as meaning more deaths (more disease), but they could equally well be interpreted as meaning earlier deaths (death at younger age). The distinction markedly affects the choice of hypotheses that may be advanced to explain variations in person, time and place and the design of subsequent, more detailed field studies to test the hypotheses. Furthermore, the majority of descriptive papers make no comparisons with a control disease and thereby break one of the ground rules of epidemiology. This paper shows how, in the example of the geographical variations within England and Wales of ischaemic heart disease, a control may be simply introduced and that much of the observed variation is not in the proportion who suffer heart disease deaths but is in the age at which deaths occur.
在死亡率统计分析中,高年龄别死亡率可以被解释为意味着更多的死亡(更多的疾病),但它们同样也可以被解释为意味着更早的死亡(在更年轻的年龄死亡)。这种区别显著影响到为解释人群、时间和地点方面的差异而可能提出的假设的选择,以及后续为检验这些假设而进行的更详细现场研究的设计。此外,大多数描述性论文没有与对照疾病进行比较,从而违反了流行病学的基本规则之一。本文以英格兰和威尔士缺血性心脏病的地理差异为例,展示了如何简单地引入一个对照,以及观察到的许多差异并非在于患心脏病死亡的比例,而是在于死亡发生的年龄。