Do we still need beds for psychiatric patients? An analysis of changing patterns of mental health care.

While the utilization of outpatient psychiatric care increased steeply in the last few decades, the number of beds in psychiatric hospitals declined continuously in most countries. The future need for psychiatric hospital beds is influenced by changes in psychiatric morbidity, the range of services offered by mental hospitals and the availability of alternative forms of care for the chronically ill. A prospective cohort study conducted in Mannheim showed that currently, at a favourable standard of complementary service provision, one quarter of the schizophrenic patients requiring institutional care for more than one year - schizophrenics are the largest group of mental patients in need of long-term residential care - still need to be treated in mental hospitals. Beyond this threshold value the costs of alternative care exceed those of a continuous inpatient treatment, and, concurrently with them, the burden upon the people involved grows. Estimates of the future need can be made on the basis of field surveys, utilization data of a population and an analysis of long-term trends by using case register data. Provided a well-functioning system of alternative and outpatient mental health services is available, psychiatric bed ratios covering the actual needs in developed countries seem to range from 0.5 to 0.8 per 1000 population over 15 for the short-stay group and from 0.3 to 0.6 per 1000 for long-stay patients. The uncertainty inherent in the estimates requires a sufficient degree of flexibility in service planning and a continuous monitoring to make adjustments to changed conditions possible.