Institute of Green Finance, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China.
Business School, Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou 450001, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Dec 17;18(24):13307. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182413307.
In this study, we propose an integrated econometric framework incorporating the difference-in-differences model, the propensity-score-matching difference-in-differences model, and the spatial difference-in-differences model to explore the effect of the Air Pollution Prevention and Control Action Plan on per capita carbon emission in China at the national, regional, and administrative levels. Contradictory results are supported under different econometric models, which highlight the importance and necessity of comprehensive analysis. Taking 285 prefecture-level and above cities as an example, the empirical results show that APPCAP has effectively reduced per capita carbon emission in China at the national level without the consideration of the spatial spillover effect. However, with the consideration of the spatial spillover effect, APPCAP has effectively and directly increased per capita carbon emission in local pilot cities at the national level, and reduced it among pilot cities via the spatial spillover effect, but the effects have become invalid in the non-pilot cities neighboring the pilot cities. Furthermore, the spatial heterogeneity of the effects of APPCAP on per capita carbon emission are supported at the regional and administrative levels. Finally, some specific policy implications are provided for achieving the "win-win" situation of energy saving, emission reduction, and economic development.
在本研究中，我们提出了一个综合的计量经济学框架，该框架结合了差分模型、倾向得分匹配差分模型和空间差分模型，以探讨空气污染防治行动计划对中国国家、地区和行政级别人均碳排放的影响。在不同的计量经济学模型下，得到了相互矛盾的结果，这凸显了综合分析的重要性和必要性。以 285 个以上的地级市为例，实证结果表明，APPCAP 有效地降低了中国的人均碳排放，而没有考虑空间溢出效应。然而，考虑到空间溢出效应，APPCAP 有效地直接增加了全国试点城市的人均碳排放，并通过空间溢出效应降低了试点城市之间的人均碳排放，但在试点城市相邻的非试点城市中，这种效应已失效。此外，APPCAP 对人均碳排放的影响在区域和行政级别上具有空间异质性。最后，为实现节能、减排和经济发展的“双赢”局面提供了一些具体的政策建议。
