College of Marxism, Hubei University, Wuhan 430062, China.
College of Public Administration, Huazhong University of Science and Technology, Wuhan 430030, China.
Int J Environ Res Public Health. 2021 Dec 20;18(24):13411. doi: 10.3390/ijerph182413411.
Land-use allocation models can effectively support sustainable land use. A large number of studies solve the problems of land-use planning by constructing models, such as mathematical models and spatial analysis models. However, these models fail to fully and comprehensively consider three uncertain factors of land-use systems: randomness, interval and fuzziness. 33Therefore, through the study of the watershed land-use system, this paper develops a land-use allocation model considering the regional land-society-economy-environment system under uncertain conditions. On the basis of this model, an interval fuzzy two-stage random land-use allocation model (IFTSP-LUAM) combining social, economic and ecological factors is proposed to provide sustainable development strategies at the basin level. In addition, the proposed IFTSP-LUAM takes into account the above three uncertainties and multistage, multiobjective, dynamic, systematic and complex characteristics of typical land-use planning systems. The results showed that the model considers more socioeconomic and ecological factors and can effectively reflect the quantitative relationship between the increase in economic benefits and the decrease in environmental costs of a land-use system. The model was applied to land-use planning of Nansihu River Basin in Shandong Province. The results provided a series of suitable land-use patterns and environmental emission scenarios under uncertain conditions, which can help the watershed environmental protection bureau and watershed land-use decision-makers to formulate appropriate land-use policies, so as to balance social and economic development and ecological protection. The simulation results can provide support for an in-depth analysis of land-use patterns and the trade-off between economic development and ecological environment protection.
土地利用配置模型可以有效地支持可持续土地利用。大量的研究通过构建模型，如数学模型和空间分析模型，来解决土地利用规划问题。然而，这些模型未能充分全面地考虑土地利用系统的三个不确定性因素：随机性、区间性和模糊性。因此，通过对流域土地利用系统的研究，本文开发了一种考虑区域土地-社会-经济-环境系统在不确定条件下的土地利用配置模型。在此模型基础上，提出了一种结合社会、经济和生态因素的区间模糊两阶段随机土地利用配置模型（IFTSP-LUAM），为流域层面提供可持续发展策略。此外，所提出的 IFTSP-LUAM 考虑了上述三个不确定性以及典型土地利用规划系统的多阶段、多目标、动态、系统和复杂特征。结果表明，该模型考虑了更多的社会经济和生态因素，能够有效地反映土地利用系统经济效益增加和环境成本降低之间的定量关系。该模型应用于山东省南四湖流域的土地利用规划。结果提供了一系列在不确定条件下的适宜土地利用模式和环境排放情景，有助于流域环境保护局和流域土地利用决策者制定适当的土地利用政策，从而平衡社会经济发展和生态环境保护。模拟结果可以为深入分析土地利用模式以及经济发展和生态环境保护之间的权衡提供支持。
