Department of Natural Resources, Chinese Culture University, 55 Hwa-Kang Rd., Yang-Ming-Shan, Taipei, 11114, Taiwan, ROC.
Graduate Institute of Environmental Engineering, National Taiwan University, 71 Chou-Shan Rd., Taipei, 106, Taiwan, ROC.
Chemosphere. 2019 Apr;220:371-380. doi: 10.1016/j.chemosphere.2018.12.116. Epub 2018 Dec 18.
Flexible land management that allows risk-based remediation approaches can increase local financial assistance in brownfield development investments. The evaluation of brownfields investment has always been mired in uncertainty because of the complexity of contamination and land policy. To clarify the uncertainty in investment costs resulting from a flexible risk-based land management, this research analyzes the uncertainty of remediation costs (I) and damaged land value (I). Sizable statistical data for 30,000 abandoned factories in Taiwan are used to derive the uncertainty of investment cost. The results show that the range and value of the uncertainty of I is more than I because the present land value and the change in flexible land management are the main sensitivity factors. The saved investment costs at the 90% confidence interval ranges five orders of magnitude. Moreover, investors could have saved approximately 5.74E+13 USD resulting from I and I. The study's two major findings with regard to investment risk in brownfield redevelopment are: (1) an explanation of the extent to which investment costs are to be reduced for investors by adjusting remediation goals depending on different land types; (2) characterization of the uncertainty of brownfields in the real investment market for brownfield redevelopment.
灵活的土地管理，允许基于风险的修复方法，可以增加棕地开发投资的地方财政援助。由于污染和土地政策的复杂性，棕地投资的评估一直存在不确定性。为了澄清灵活的基于风险的土地管理所导致的投资成本不确定性，本研究分析了修复成本（I）和受损土地价值（I）的不确定性。利用台湾 30000 家废弃工厂的大量统计数据，得出了投资成本不确定性。结果表明，由于I和I的主要敏感性因素是现有土地价值和灵活土地管理的变化，因此 I 的范围和价值的不确定性大于 I。在 90%置信区间范围内，节省的投资成本为五个数量级。此外，由于 I 和 I，投资者总共可以节省约 5.74E+13 美元。本研究关于棕地再开发投资风险的两个主要发现是：（1）根据不同的土地类型调整修复目标，为投资者解释投资成本可以降低的程度；（2）在棕地再开发的实际投资市场中，对棕地的不确定性进行描述。
