School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China.
School of Management and Economics, Beijing Institute of Technology, Beijing 100081, China; Sustainable Development Research Institute for Economy and Society of Beijing, Beijing 100081, China.
Sci Total Environ. 2022 Mar 20;813:152587. doi: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.152587. Epub 2021 Dec 23.
This paper studies the impact of global value chains (GVCs) participation on carbon emissions embodied in exports (EEE) of China during 2005-2016, and analyses firm heterogeneity from the perspective of firm ownership and trade patterns; Then, industries are classified based on factor intensity and technology level, and the industrial heterogeneity of different firms is analyzed; Finally, through counterfactual analysis, this paper evaluates EEE under four anti-globalization scenarios. The empirical study shows that with the increase of GVCs position, EEE first increases and then decreases, showing an inverted U-shaped distribution. From the perspective of firm ownership, the relationship between GVCs position of domestic firms and EEE is inverted U-shaped distribution, while GVCs position of multinational enterprises (MNEs) is positively correlated with EEE. The relationship of capital-intensive and technology-intensive domestic firms, high-tech and medium-tech manufacturing domestic firms are also inverted U-shaped distribution. The positive correlation of MNEs is reflected in the low-tech manufacturing industries. From the perspective of trade patterns, with the increase of GVCs position, EEE of processing trade firms presents an inverted U-shaped distribution, while it is not significant for general trade firms. The inverted U-shaped relationship between GVCs position in capital-intensive industries and EEE are confirmed in all firms. Under anti-globalization scenarios of 50% backflow, EEE would increase. Under scenarios of 100% backflow, EEE would reduce. The results above provide useful references to achieve carbon emission reduction targets.
本文研究了全球价值链（GVCs）参与度对中国 2005-2016 年出口隐含碳排放量（EEE）的影响，并从企业所有权和贸易模式的角度分析了企业异质性；然后，根据要素密集度和技术水平对行业进行分类，并分析了不同企业的产业异质性；最后，通过反事实分析，评估了在四种反全球化情景下的 EEE。实证研究表明，随着 GVCs 地位的提高，EEE 先增加后减少，呈倒 U 型分布。从企业所有权的角度来看，国内企业的 GVCs 地位与 EEE 呈倒 U 型分布，而跨国企业（MNEs）的 GVCs 地位与 EEE 呈正相关。资本和技术密集型国内企业以及高科技和中技术制造业国内企业的关系也是倒 U 型的。MNEs 的正相关性反映在低技术制造业中。从贸易模式的角度来看，随着 GVCs 地位的提高，加工贸易企业的 EEE 呈倒 U 型分布，而一般贸易企业的 EEE 则不显著。在所有企业中，资本密集型行业的 GVCs 地位与 EEE 之间的倒 U 型关系得到了证实。在 50%回流的反全球化情景下，EEE 将增加。在 100%回流的情景下，EEE 将减少。上述结果为实现碳排放目标提供了有益的参考。
