气象因素对 SARS-CoV-2 感染病死率无影响。
No Effects of Meteorological Factors on the SARS-CoV-2 Infection Fatality Rate.
机构信息
Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain;Department of Psychiatry and Forensic Medicine, Autonomous University of Barcelona, Barcelona, Spain.
Institut d'Investigacions Biomèdiques August Pi i Sunyer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain.
出版信息
Biomed Environ Sci. 2021 Nov 20;34(11):871-880. doi: 10.3967/bes2021.120.
OBJECTIVE
Previous studies have shown that meteorological factors may increase COVID-19 mortality, likely due to the increased transmission of the virus. However, this could also be related to an increased infection fatality rate (IFR). We investigated the association between meteorological factors (temperature, humidity, solar irradiance, pressure, wind, precipitation, cloud coverage) and IFR across Spanish provinces ( = 52) during the first wave of the pandemic (weeks 10-16 of 2020).
METHODS
We estimated IFR as excess deaths (the gap between observed and expected deaths, considering COVID-19-unrelated deaths prevented by lockdown measures) divided by the number of infections (SARS-CoV-2 seropositive individuals plus excess deaths) and conducted Spearman correlations between meteorological factors and IFR across the provinces.
RESULTS
We estimated 2,418,250 infections and 43,237 deaths. The IFR was 0.03% in < 50-year-old, 0.22% in 50-59-year-old, 0.9% in 60-69-year-old, 3.3% in 70-79-year-old, 12.6% in 80-89-year-old, and 26.5% in ≥ 90-year-old. We did not find statistically significant relationships between meteorological factors and adjusted IFR. However, we found strong relationships between low temperature and unadjusted IFR, likely due to Spain's colder provinces' aging population.
CONCLUSION
The association between meteorological factors and adjusted COVID-19 IFR is unclear. Neglecting age differences or ignoring COVID-19-unrelated deaths may severely bias COVID-19 epidemiological analyses.
目的
先前的研究表明，气象因素可能会增加 COVID-19 的死亡率，这可能是由于病毒传播增加所致。然而，这也可能与感染病死率（IFR）的增加有关。我们研究了气象因素（温度、湿度、太阳辐射、压力、风、降水、云量）与西班牙 52 个省份（ = 52）在大流行第一波期间（2020 年第 10 周至第 16 周）IFR 之间的关联。
方法
我们将感染病死率（超额死亡人数与感染人数之比，考虑到因封锁措施而避免的与 COVID-19 无关的死亡人数）定义为超额死亡人数除以感染人数（SARS-CoV-2 血清阳性者加上超额死亡人数），并在各省份之间进行气象因素与 IFR 之间的 Spearman 相关性分析。
结果
我们估计有 2418250 例感染和 43237 例死亡。50 岁以下人群的 IFR 为 0.03%，50-59 岁为 0.22%，60-69 岁为 0.9%，70-79 岁为 3.3%，80-89 岁为 12.6%，≥90 岁为 26.5%。我们未发现气象因素与调整后的 IFR 之间存在统计学上的显著关系。然而，我们发现低温与未调整的 IFR 之间存在很强的关系，这可能是由于西班牙较冷省份的老年人口较多所致。
结论
气象因素与调整后的 COVID-19 IFR 之间的关联尚不清楚。忽视年龄差异或忽略与 COVID-19 无关的死亡人数可能会严重偏倚 COVID-19 流行病学分析。
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