Phillips D P, Wills J S
Suicide Life Threat Behav. 1987 Spring;17(1):1-12. doi: 10.1111/j.1943-278x.1987.tb00057.x.
To study the fluctuation of suicides around the holidays, we examined 188,047 U.S. suicides from 1973 to 1979. Correcting for the effects of extraneous variables, such as seasons and days of the week, we found that suicides dropped by an annual average of -102.5 in the period surrounding the holidays. One set of holidays (Memorial Day, Thanksgiving, and Christmas) was associated with an unusually low risk of suicide before, during, and after the holiday. Another set of holidays (New Year's Day, July 4th, and Labor Day) was associated with a low risk of suicide before the holiday and a high risk just afterwards. Almost all demographic groups experienced a low risk of suicide around the holidays: whites, blacks, males, females, retired persons, and persons of working age. Only white teenagers deviated from this pattern. Thus, the evidence does not support the widespread popular assumption that holidays are a risk factor in suicide.
为研究节假日前后自杀率的波动情况，我们调查了1973年至1979年间美国的188,047起自杀事件。在排除季节和星期等外部变量的影响后，我们发现节假日前后期间自杀事件年平均减少了102.5起。其中一组节假日（阵亡将士纪念日、感恩节和圣诞节）在节前、节中和节后都与异常低的自杀风险相关。另一组节假日（元旦、7月4日和劳动节）在节前与低自杀风险相关，而在节后则与高自杀风险相关。几乎所有人口群体在节假日前后都经历了低自杀风险：白人、黑人、男性、女性、退休人员和工作年龄人群。只有白人青少年偏离了这一模式。因此，证据并不支持节假日是自杀风险因素这一广泛流行的假设。
