Temel Tugrul, Phumpiu Paul
ECOREC Economic Research and Consulting, Amsterdam, The Netherlands.
The World Bank, Washington, D.C , USA.
J Econ Struct. 2021;10(1):29. doi: 10.1186/s40008-021-00256-2. Epub 2021 Dec 23.
At present, the world is facing an unprecedented employment challenge due to the COVID-19 pandemic. International Labor Organization of the United Nations expects the largest amount of youth unemployment at the global level to take place in manufacturing, real estate, wholesale, and accommodation sectors. This paper has two objectives. The first is to introduce a graph-theoretic method for identifying upstream and downstream pathways of a targeted sector and characterize them in ways that help respond to and recovery from the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The second is to apply this method in the context of China, Japan, India, Russia, Germany, Turkey, UK and USA, which together account for about 60 percent of the world GDP. Based on the analysis of most recent input-output data from 2015, manufacturing sector is found to be top priority sector to be targeted in all the eight countries, followed by real estate and wholesale sectors, and these sectors should be coupled with isolated communities of sectors to capture external employment and growth effects. Characterizing the critical pre-COVID-19 linkages of a targeted sector should inform policy makers regarding the design of employment and growth strategies to recover from the pandemic.
目前，由于新冠疫情，世界正面临前所未有的就业挑战。联合国国际劳工组织预计，全球青年失业人数最多的情况将出现在制造业、房地产、批发业和住宿业。本文有两个目标。第一个目标是引入一种基于图论的方法，用于识别目标行业的上下游路径，并以有助于应对新冠疫情负面影响并从中恢复的方式对其进行特征描述。第二个目标是在中国、日本、印度、俄罗斯、德国、土耳其、英国和美国的背景下应用该方法，这几个国家的GDP总和约占世界的60%。基于对2015年最新投入产出数据的分析，发现制造业是所有这八个国家的首要目标行业，其次是房地产和批发业，这些行业应与孤立的行业群体相结合，以获取外部就业和增长效应。对目标行业在新冠疫情之前的关键联系进行特征描述，应能为政策制定者提供有关从疫情中恢复的就业和增长战略设计的信息。
