Dweck Esther, Marcato Marilia Bassetti, Torracca Julia, Miguez Thiago
Institute of Economics, Universidade Federal do Rio de Janeiro, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil.
Struct Chang Econ Dyn. 2022 Jun;61:278-293. doi: 10.1016/j.strueco.2022.02.018. Epub 2022 Feb 28.
The COVID-19 crisis represents a turning point to rethink industrial policy spaces and countries' productive autonomy, especially for developing economies, such as Brazil, that call for new ways of thinking about manufacturing within societal purposes. Using an input-output model, the paper explores the pandemic-crisis-effects in the case of the Brazilian manufacturing sector. We find that the pandemic-crisis has harmful effects on the Brazilian productive structure, revealing the dependence on imports of the Brazilian Health System. Reductions in manufacturing gross output and value-added are mainly seen in knowledge-intensive subsectors, followed by job losses and tax revenue reduction. We suggest that the pandemic points to some roads to reindustrialization and resilience, given the reorganization of international production networks and the growing dependence on imports in key manufacturing sectors. Thus, the potential role of the manufacturing sector to achieve inclusive and sustainable growth reveals the importance of building productive capacity beyond the pandemic.
新冠疫情危机是一个转折点，促使人们重新思考产业政策空间和各国的生产自主性，尤其是对于像巴西这样的发展中经济体而言，这些国家需要以新的方式思考符合社会目标的制造业。本文运用投入产出模型，探究了新冠疫情危机对巴西制造业的影响。我们发现，疫情危机对巴西生产结构产生了有害影响，凸显了巴西卫生系统对进口的依赖。制造业总产出和附加值的下降主要出现在知识密集型子行业，其次是失业和税收减少。鉴于国际生产网络的重组以及关键制造业部门对进口的依赖不断增加，我们认为疫情指明了一些重新工业化和恢复韧性的途径。因此，制造业在实现包容性和可持续增长方面的潜在作用凸显了在疫情之后建设生产能力的重要性。
