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武汉遏制 COVID-19 联合防控机制的建模与评估。

Modeling and Evaluation of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism for Curbing COVID-19 in Wuhan.

机构信息

School of Science, Changchun University of Science and Technology, Changchun, China.

School of Mathematics and Statistics, Northeast Normal University, Changchun, China.

出版信息

Bull Math Biol. 2022 Jan 4;84(2):28. doi: 10.1007/s11538-021-00983-4.

DOI:10.1007/s11538-021-00983-4
PMID:34982256
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC8724762/
Abstract

The spread of COVID-19 in Wuhan was successfully curbed under the strategy of "Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism." To understand how this measure stopped the epidemics in Wuhan, we establish a compartmental model with time-varying parameters over different stages. In the early stage of the epidemic, due to resource limitations, the number of daily reported cases may lower than the actual number. We employ a dynamic-based approach to calibrate the accumulated clinically diagnosed data with a sudden jump on February 12 and 13. The model simulation shows reasonably good match with the adjusted data which allows the prediction of the cumulative confirmed cases. Numerical results reveal that the "Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism" played a significant role on the containment of COVID-19. The spread of COVID-19 cannot be inhibited if any of the measures was not effectively implemented. Our analysis also illustrates that the Fangcang Shelter Hospitals are very helpful when the beds in the designated hospitals are insufficient. Comprised with Fangcang Shelter Hospitals, the designated hospitals can contain the transmission of COVID-19 more effectively. Our findings suggest that the combined multiple measures are essential to curb an ongoing epidemic if the prevention and control measures can be fully implemented.

摘要

在“联合防控机制”的策略下，武汉的 COVID-19 疫情得到成功遏制。为了了解这一措施如何阻止武汉的疫情，我们建立了一个时变参数的房室模型，涵盖了不同阶段。在疫情早期，由于资源限制，每日报告的病例数可能低于实际数量。我们采用基于动态的方法，对 2 月 12 日和 13 日的突然跳跃进行校正，以调整累计临床诊断数据。模型模拟结果与调整后的数据具有较好的拟合度，从而可以预测累计确诊病例数。数值结果表明，“联合防控机制”在 COVID-19 的遏制中发挥了重要作用。如果任何措施没有得到有效实施，COVID-19 的传播将无法得到抑制。我们的分析还表明，在指定医院床位不足时，方舱庇护医院非常有帮助。方舱庇护医院与指定医院相结合，可以更有效地控制 COVID-19 的传播。我们的研究结果表明，如果能够全面实施防控措施，那么综合多种措施对于遏制正在进行的疫情是至关重要的。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/d36016096e07/11538_2021_983_Fig13_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/4a2ec6c7e84e/11538_2021_983_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/8f81219c74fa/11538_2021_983_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/39aea921bbe2/11538_2021_983_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/43934dad650e/11538_2021_983_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/1146d6d57a93/11538_2021_983_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/f65f54dde784/11538_2021_983_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/0af5fca73eff/11538_2021_983_Fig11_HTML.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/d36016096e07/11538_2021_983_Fig13_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/dddc3447a5e5/11538_2021_983_Fig1_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/ed115fe05776/11538_2021_983_Fig2_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/8f22e7dae184/11538_2021_983_Fig3_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/aa4c92d4fdce/11538_2021_983_Fig4_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/4a2ec6c7e84e/11538_2021_983_Fig5_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/8f81219c74fa/11538_2021_983_Fig6_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/39aea921bbe2/11538_2021_983_Fig7_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/43934dad650e/11538_2021_983_Fig8_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/1146d6d57a93/11538_2021_983_Fig9_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/f65f54dde784/11538_2021_983_Fig10_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/0af5fca73eff/11538_2021_983_Fig11_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/ec4e2e3d9068/11538_2021_983_Fig12_HTML.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/e7bb/8724762/d36016096e07/11538_2021_983_Fig13_HTML.jpg

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