Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.
College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China.
Bull World Health Organ. 2020 Dec 1;98(12):830-841D. doi: 10.2471/BLT.20.258152. Epub 2020 Sep 29.
OBJECTIVE: To design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic. METHODS: We used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic. FINDINGS: Based on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71). CONCLUSION: While the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.
目的:设计 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)在武汉的传播模型,以及方舱庇护医院(快速建成的临时医院)对疫情控制的影响。
方法:我们使用武汉市卫生健康委员会官方网站上每日报告的 COVID-19 确诊病例、治愈病例和死亡病例数据,为 COVID-19 疫情的三个阶段构建房室模型。我们将指定和方舱庇护医院的病床容量纳入其中。我们使用这些模型来评估武汉控制 COVID-19 疫情所采取策略的成功。
结果:根据实际使用的 13348 张方舱庇护医院病床,我们的模型显示,如果方舱庇护医院在 2 月 6 日(实际开放日的前一天)开放,COVID-19 病例总数将达到 7413798 例(而不是 50844 例),死亡人数将达到 1396017 例(而不是 5003 例),疫情将持续 179 天(而不是 71 天)。
结论:虽然指定医院挽救了 COVID-19 重症患者的生命,但正是大量方舱庇护医院增加的病床容量帮助减缓并最终阻止了 COVID-19 在武汉的流行。鉴于当前 COVID-19 在全球的大流行,我们的研究表明,增加病床容量,特别是通过方舱庇护医院等临时医院,将轻症患者群体隔离在受影响地区内,可能有助于遏制并最终阻止在无法有效进行家庭隔离的社区中爆发 COVID-19。
Bull World Health Organ. 2020-9-29
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