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新冠疫情期间的中国武汉“方舱医院”。

Fangcang shelter hospitals during the COVID-19 epidemic, Wuhan, China.

机构信息

Centre for Disease Modelling, York University, 4700 Keele Street, Toronto, Ontario, M3J 1P3, Canada.

College of Mathematics and System Science, Xinjiang University, Urumqi, China.

出版信息

Bull World Health Organ. 2020 Dec 1;98(12):830-841D. doi: 10.2471/BLT.20.258152. Epub 2020 Sep 29.


DOI:10.2471/BLT.20.258152
PMID:33293743
原文链接:https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC7716094/
Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To design models of the spread of coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan and the effect of Fangcang shelter hospitals (rapidly-built temporary hospitals) on the control of the epidemic. METHODS: We used data on daily reported confirmed cases of COVID-19, recovered cases and deaths from the official website of the Wuhan Municipal Health Commission to build compartmental models for three phases of the COVID-19 epidemic. We incorporated the hospital-bed capacity of both designated and Fangcang shelter hospitals. We used the models to assess the success of the strategy adopted in Wuhan to control the COVID-19 epidemic. FINDINGS: Based on the 13 348 Fangcang shelter hospitals beds used in practice, our models show that if the Fangcang shelter hospitals had been opened on 6 February (a day after their actual opening), the total number of COVID-19 cases would have reached 7 413 798 (instead of 50 844) with 1 396 017 deaths (instead of 5003), and the epidemic would have lasted for 179 days (instead of 71). CONCLUSION: While the designated hospitals saved lives of patients with severe COVID-19, it was the increased hospital-bed capacity of the large number of Fangcang shelter hospitals that helped slow and eventually stop the COVID-19 epidemic in Wuhan. Given the current global pandemic of COVID-19, our study suggests that increasing hospital-bed capacity, especially through temporary hospitals such as Fangcang shelter hospitals, to isolate groups of people with mild symptoms within an affected region could help curb and eventually stop COVID-19 outbreaks in communities where effective household isolation is not possible.

摘要

目的:设计 2019 年冠状病毒病(COVID-19)在武汉的传播模型,以及方舱庇护医院(快速建成的临时医院)对疫情控制的影响。

方法:我们使用武汉市卫生健康委员会官方网站上每日报告的 COVID-19 确诊病例、治愈病例和死亡病例数据,为 COVID-19 疫情的三个阶段构建房室模型。我们将指定和方舱庇护医院的病床容量纳入其中。我们使用这些模型来评估武汉控制 COVID-19 疫情所采取策略的成功。

结果:根据实际使用的 13348 张方舱庇护医院病床,我们的模型显示,如果方舱庇护医院在 2 月 6 日(实际开放日的前一天)开放,COVID-19 病例总数将达到 7413798 例(而不是 50844 例),死亡人数将达到 1396017 例(而不是 5003 例),疫情将持续 179 天(而不是 71 天)。

结论:虽然指定医院挽救了 COVID-19 重症患者的生命,但正是大量方舱庇护医院增加的病床容量帮助减缓并最终阻止了 COVID-19 在武汉的流行。鉴于当前 COVID-19 在全球的大流行,我们的研究表明,增加病床容量,特别是通过方舱庇护医院等临时医院,将轻症患者群体隔离在受影响地区内,可能有助于遏制并最终阻止在无法有效进行家庭隔离的社区中爆发 COVID-19。

https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/76cea51f9803/BLT.20.258152-F12.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/445f16a017ce/BLT.20.258152-F1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/cdc58dd6d04b/BLT.20.258152-F2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/9bedf7d3bad5/BLT.20.258152-F3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/736ddc280809/BLT.20.258152-F4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/42080ef7d9ed/BLT.20.258152-F5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/771bb03bb28d/BLT.20.258152-F6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/32b06bed51b1/BLT.20.258152-F7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/2c699806787d/BLT.20.258152-F8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/84b299948a41/BLT.20.258152-F9.jpg
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https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/76b434984889/BLT.20.258152-F11.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/76cea51f9803/BLT.20.258152-F12.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/445f16a017ce/BLT.20.258152-F1.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/cdc58dd6d04b/BLT.20.258152-F2.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/9bedf7d3bad5/BLT.20.258152-F3.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/736ddc280809/BLT.20.258152-F4.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/42080ef7d9ed/BLT.20.258152-F5.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/771bb03bb28d/BLT.20.258152-F6.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/32b06bed51b1/BLT.20.258152-F7.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/2c699806787d/BLT.20.258152-F8.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/84b299948a41/BLT.20.258152-F9.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/ce3ae4685163/BLT.20.258152-F10.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/76b434984889/BLT.20.258152-F11.jpg
https://cdn.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/blobs/9bbb/7716094/76cea51f9803/BLT.20.258152-F12.jpg

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